期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2008
卷号：105
期号：30
页码：10302-10307
DOI：10.1073/pnas.0710616105
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 x 105 g) CO2{middle dot}yr-1 in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion{middle dot}yr-1 for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO2{middle dot}yr-1 in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion{middle dot}yr-1. Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.
关键词：carbon sequestration ; climate change ; reducing emissions from deforestation and ecosystem degradation (REDD) ; marginal cost ; tropical forest
