期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2009
卷号：106
期号：13
页码：5041-5046
DOI：10.1073/pnas.0809117106
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2-4 {degrees}C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 {degrees}C) relative to year 2000 levels.
