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  • 标题:Residual soil phosphorus as the missing piece in the global phosphorus crisis puzzle
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Sheida Z. Sattari ; Alexander F. Bouwman ; Ken E. Giller
  • 期刊名称:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • 印刷版ISSN:0027-8424
  • 电子版ISSN:1091-6490
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:109
  • 期号:16
  • 页码:6348-6353
  • DOI:10.1073/pnas.1113675109
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
  • 摘要:Phosphorus (P) is a finite and dwindling resource. Debate focuses on current production and use of phosphate rock rather than on the amounts of P required in the future to feed the world. We applied a two-pool soil P model to reproduce historical continental crop P uptake as a function of P inputs from fertilizer and manure and to estimate P requirements for crop production in 2050. The key feature is the consideration of the role of residual soil P in crop production. Model simulations closely fit historical P uptake for all continents. Cumulative inputs of P fertilizer and manure for the period 1965-2007 in Europe (1,115 kg*ha-1 of cropland) grossly exceeded the cumulative P uptake by crops (360 kg*ha-1). Since the 1980s in much of Europe, P application rates have been reduced, and uptake continues to increase due to the supply of plant-available P from residual soil P pool. We estimate that between 2008 and 2050 a global cumulative P application of 700-790 kg*ha-1 of cropland (in total 1,070-1,200 teragrams P) is required to achieve crop production according to the various Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios [Alcamo J, Van Vuuren D, Cramer W (2006) Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios, Vol 2, pp 279-354]. We estimate that average global P fertilizer use must change from the current 17.8 to 16.8-20.8 teragrams per year in 2050, which is up to 50% less than other estimates in the literature that ignore the role of residual soil P.
  • 关键词:food security ; global crop production ; phosphorus depletion ; hysteresis
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