期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2001
卷号：98
期号：26
页码：14778-14783
DOI：10.1073/pnas.261553698
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/m2 per century. This growth rate has since declined to {approx}3 W/m2 per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario ({approx}2 W/m2 per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO2 emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate +0.15 {+/-} 0.05{degrees}C per decade will occur over the next several decades.
