期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2002
卷号：99
期号：10
页码：7027-7032
DOI：10.1073/pnas.102691499
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：A mathematical model is developed to analyze the transmission of inhalational anthrax through the postal system by cross-contamination of mail. The model consists of state vectors describing the numbers of cross-contaminated letters generated, the numbers of anthrax spores on these letters, the numbers of resulting infections in recipients, and matrices of transition probabilities acting on these vectors. The model simulates the recent outbreak in the United States, and provides a general framework to investigate the potential impact of possible future outbreaks.
