期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2002
卷号：99
期号：12
页码：8112-8115
DOI：10.1073/pnas.122231299
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：There is presently a conflict between fossil- and molecular-based evolutionary time scales. Molecular approaches for dating the branches of the tree of life frequently lead to substantially deeper times of divergence than those inferred by paleontologists. The discrepancy between molecular and fossil estimates persists despite the booming growth of sequence data sets, which increasingly feeds the interpretation that molecular estimates are older than stratigraphic dates because of deficiencies in the fossil record. Here we show that molecular time estimates suffer from a methodological handicap, namely that they are asymmetrically bounded random variables, constrained by a nonelastic boundary at the lower end, but not at the higher end of the distribution. This introduces a bias toward an overestimation of time since divergence, which becomes greater as the length of the molecular sequence and the rate of evolution decrease.
