期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2002
卷号：99
期号：20
页码：13330-13335
DOI：10.1073/pnas.202244299
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：A wide range of communicable human diseases can be considered as spreading through a network of possible transmission routes. The implied network structure is vital in determining disease dynamics, especially when the average number of connections per individual is small as is the case for many sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Here we develop an intuitive mathematical framework to deal with the heterogeneities implicit within contact networks and those that arise because of the infection process. These models are compared with full stochastic simulations and show excellent agreement across a wide range of parameters. We show how such models can be used to estimate parameters of epidemiological importance, and how they can be extended to examine the effectiveness of various control strategies, in particular screening programs and contact tracing.
