期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2009
卷号：106
期号：34
页码：14722-14727
DOI：10.1073/pnas.0906620106
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Worldwide a number of fish stocks have collapsed because of overfishing and climate-induced ecosystem changes. Developing ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) to prevent these catastrophic events in the future requires ecological models incorporating both internal food-web dynamics and external drivers such as fishing and climate. Using a stochastic food-web model for a large marine ecosystem (i.e., the Baltic Sea) hosting a commercially important cod stock, we were able to reconstruct the history of the stock. Moreover we demonstrate that in hindsight the collapse could only have been avoidable by adapting fishing pressure to environmental conditions and food-web interactions. The modeling approach presented here represents a significant advance for EBFM, the application of which is important for sustainable resource management in the future.
