期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：1981
卷号：78
期号：1
页码：392-396
DOI：10.1073/pnas.78.1.392
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：We develop a dynamic model of island biogeography based on immigration and extinction probabilities of individual species rather than on the usual biogeographic parameters of the number of species immigrating or going extinct per unit time. In the real world, these probabilities vary enormously among species, and three field studies suggest lognormal distributions. Based on such distributions of individual probabilities, our model proceeds by calculating the conditional probability of species occurrence--the likelihood that a given species will occur on a given island--as a function of total species number on the island. The model succeeds in predicting two observed features of species communities; (i) staggered, sigmoidally-shaped incidence functions ("differing area requirements of different species") and (ii) concave immigration and extinction curves.
