期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：1989
卷号：86
期号：24
页码：10176-10180
DOI：10.1073/pnas.86.24.10176
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Pattern recognition study demonstrates that the outcomes of American midterm senatorial elections follow the dynamics of simple integral parameters that depict preelectoral situations aggregated to the state as a whole. A set of "commonsense" parameters is identified that is sufficient to predict such elections state-by-state and year-by-year. The analysis rejects many similar commonsense parameters. The existence and nature of integral collective behavior in U.S. elections at the level of the individual states is investigated. Implications for understanding the American electoral process are discussed.
