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  • 标题:Myopic decision making in energy system decarbonisation pathways. A UK case study
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Francesco Fuso Nerini ; Ilkka Keppo ; Neil Strachan
  • 期刊名称:Energy Strategy Reviews
  • 印刷版ISSN:2211-467X
  • 出版年度:2017
  • 卷号:17
  • 页码:1-21
  • DOI:10.1016/j.esr.2017.06.001
  • 出版社:Elsevier
  • 摘要:With an application on the UK, this paper shows that myopic planning might result in delayed strategic investments and in considerably higher costs for achieving decarbonisation targets compared to estimates done with perfect foresight optimisation energy models. It also suggests that carbon prices obtained from perfect foresight energy models might be under-estimated. The study was performed using a combination of the standard UK Times Model (UKTM), a perfect foresight, bottom-up, technology-rich cost optimisation energy model, and its myopic foresight version: My-UKTM. This also demonstrates that using perfect foresight optimisation models in tandem with their myopic equivalents can provide valuable indications for policy design.
  • 关键词:Energy systems decarbonisation ; Optimisation energy models ; Perfect foresight ; Myopic models ; TIMES model ; Technology diffusion ; United Kingdom
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