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  • 标题:Uncovering the portfolio balance channel with the use of sovereign credit ratings
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Laura Andrade-Pardo ; Oscar Valencia-Arana ; Diego Vásquez-Escobar
  • 期刊名称:Ensayos sobre Política Económica
  • 印刷版ISSN:0120-4483
  • 出版年度:2016
  • 卷号:34
  • 期号:81
  • 页码:191-205
  • DOI:10.1016/j.espe.2016.08.003
  • 出版社:Banco de la Republica, Bogotà
  • 摘要:

    In this paper we study exchange rate effects due to shifts in the portfolio composition of the Colombian financial sector during 2003–2014. We first provide a theoretical understanding of the channel's transmission mechanism by modeling how the banking sector optimally allocates its portfolio composition. This allows us to characterize departures from the uncovered interest rate parity condition (UIP) in terms of foreign and domestic assets. In the empirical application, we control for a potential simultaneity bias by using a novel instrument for portfolio compositions: the use of sovereign credit ratings and outlook changes made by Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Our findings indicate that shifts in portfolio balances affect only the long term (5-year) risk premium in up to five months before the effects subside. Additionally, we find stronger and more persistent portfolio effects in cases in which US ratings increased relative to Colombian ratings.

  • 关键词:Portfolio balance channel; Sovereign credit rating; Uncovered interest rate parity; Monetary trilemma
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