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  • 标题:Estimation of the efficiency of the earthquake prediction on the basis of the analysis of ionospheric parameters
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Vadim Bogdanov ; Aleksey Pavlov
  • 期刊名称:E3S Web of Conferences
  • 印刷版ISSN:2267-1242
  • 电子版ISSN:2267-1242
  • 出版年度:2017
  • 卷号:20
  • 页码:1-6
  • DOI:10.1051/e3sconf/20172003001
  • 出版社:EDP Sciences
  • 摘要:A method of the operational forecast of strong earthquakes is considered. Exceedance of the current values of ionospheric critical frequency f 0 F 2 over the median values during the disturbed state of the magnetosphere is considered to be a precursor. The reliability, validity and the efficiency of the precursor were evaluated by A.A. Gusev's and G.M. Molchan's methods for the period of 2009-2016. Earthquakes with the magnitude of M ≥ 5.0 occurring within the zone of precursor appearance determined by Dobrovol'skiy's radius were considered as forecasting earthquakes. It was shown that the precursor has the best predictive efficiency for the seismic events with the magnitude of M ≥ 6.5.
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