摘要：Uncertainty-based design and optimization is becoming one of the research focuses for high safety of complex engineering systems. Evaluating failure probability is essential and necessary in uncertainty-based design and optimization. Reliability analysis method using original Monte Carlo simulation usually shows good performance in evaluation accuracy. However, in situations for computing small failure probabilities, the calculation efficiency of Monte Carlo simulation is low generally. In this study, an enhanced Monte Carlo simulation method is utilized to solve the above challenge for assessment of the probability of rare failure events in uncertainty-based design and optimization. A mathematic example and a speed reducer design problem are given to illustrate the utilization of the proposed approach.
关键词：Uncertainty-based design and optimization; complex engineering system; failure probability; enhanced Monte Carlo simulation; rare failure events
