摘要：Many earlier studies have assessed the DH generation mix without taking explicitly into account future changes in the building stock and heat demand. The approach of this study consists of three steps that combine stock modeling, energy demand forecasting, and simulation of different energy technologies. First, a detailed residential building stock model for Herten is constructed by using remote sensing together with a typology for the German building stock. Second, a bottom-up simulation model is used which calculates the thermal energy demand based on energy-related investments in buildings in order to forecast the thermal demand up to 2050. Third, solar thermal fields in combination with large-scale heat pumps are sized as an alternative to the current coal-fired CHPs. We finally assess cost of heat and CO2 reduction for these units for two scenarios which differ with regard to the DH expansion. It can be concluded that up to 2030 and 2050 a substantial reduction in buildings heat demand due to the improved building insulation is expected. The falling heat demand in the DH substantially reduces the economic feasibility of new RES generation capacity. This reduction might be compensated by continuously connecting apartment buildings to the DH network until 2050.
