标题：Match Statistics as Predictors of Team’s Performance in Elite competitive Handball. [Estadística del partido como predictor del rendimiento de equipo en el balonmano de élite].
期刊名称：RICYDE. Revista Internacional de Ciencias del Deporte. doi:10.5232/ricyde
印刷版ISSN：1885-3137
出版年度：2017
卷号：13
期号：48
页码：149-161
语种：English
出版社：Ramón Cantó Alcaraz (Publisher)
摘要：Abstract The aim of the present study was to identify performance indicators able to predict victory in a handball match. A documental research was carried out based on data from 80 matches from the Men’s Handball World Championship, held in Qatar in 2015. Data was obtained from the International Handball Federation website. Reliability was determined through intra and inter-observer agreement. Our results show that the combination of attack, defense, and goalkeeper indicators adequately predicted winning a match. Specifically, the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that shots saved by other team’s goalkeeper, technical fouls, steals, and own goalkeeper’s saves were adequate predictors of team performance. We also analysed the cut-off points of key performance indicators that significantly predict the victory of a match. The study of objective performance indicators and their relationship with team outcome can be useful to trainers as a tool to assess different match features. Resumen El objetivo del presente estudio es identificar los indicadores de rendimiento que permiten predecir la victoria en un partido de balonmano. Se llevó a cabo un estudio documental basado en los datos de los 80 partidos del Campeonato Mundial de Balonmano Masculino, celebrado en Qatar en 2015. Los datos fueron recogidos por la Federación Internacional de Balonmano. Se calculó la fiabilidad intra e inter observador. Los resultados muestran que la combinación de indicadores de ataque, defensa y portero predijo adecuadamente ganar un partido. Específicamente, el análisis de regresión logística multivariante mostró que los lanzamientos parados por el portero del otro equipo, las faltas técnicas, los robos y las paradas del propio portero, eran predictores adecuados del rendimiento del equipo. Se establecieron puntos de corte a partir de los cuales aumenta significativamente la probabilidad de ganar el partido. El estudio de los indicadores de desempeño y su relación con los resultados del equipo puede ser una buena herramienta para evaluar diferentes características del juego. https://doi.org/10.5232/ricyde2017.04805 References/referencias Antúnez, A.; García, J.; Sáez, F.; Valle, A., & García, A. (2013). Diferencias en los indicadores de rendimiento entre los equipos ganadores y perdedores en etapas de formación en balonmano en función del género y la diferencia final de goles. E-Balonmano, 9 (1), 5–16. Balint, E., & Curiţianu, E. (2012). The importance of anticipation in increasing the defense efficiency in high performance handball. Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Braşov, 5 (54), (1), 103-112. Bilge, M. (2012). Game Analysis of Olympic, World and European Championships in Men’s Handball. Journal of Human Kinetics, 35 , 109–18. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10078-012-0084-7 Blanco, A.; Ibáñez, S. J.; Antúnez, A., & Hernández-Mendo, A. (2015). Estudio de fiabilidad de los indicadores de rendimiento en la Liga ASOBAL. Cuadernos de Psicologia del Deporte, 15 (1), 255–264. https://doi.org/10.4321/S1578-84232015000100024 Cälin, R. (2010). The analysis of the efficiency of using fastbreaks in female Handball during the World Championship in China, 2009. Science, Movement and Health, 2 , 594–599. Celes, N.; Vojvodic, M., & Skender, N. (2012). A comparative analysis of shooting efficiency in handball at EURO 2012. Sport Science and Health, 4 (2), 131–137. Daza, G. (2010). Las habilidades del pivote en la alta competición de balonmano. Universidad de Barcelona. Retrieved from: http://hdl.handle.net/10803/21618 Ferrari, W. R.; Dos Santos, J. V., & Vaz, V. P. S. (2014). Offensive process analysis in handball: Identification of game actions that differentiate winning from losing teams. American Journal of Sports Science, 2 (4), 92-96. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajss.20140204.14 Foretić, N.; Rogulj, N., & Trninic, M. (2010). The influence of situation efficiency on the result of a handball match. Sport Science, 3 , 45–51. Gabin, B.; Camerino, O.; Anguera, M.T., & Castañer, M. (2012). Lince: multiplatform sport analysis software. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 46 , 4692-4694. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.320 Georgiana, V. C., & Aurelia, I. M. (2014). Statistical Model of the Wing Players who Participated in the Women’s European Handball Championship, Serbia 2012. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 117 , 123–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.02.189 González-García, I.; Casáis, L.; Viaño, J., & Gómez, M.A. (2016). Inter-observer reliability of a real-time observation tool in handball. International Journal of Kinesiology and Sports Science, 4 (4), 1-9. Gómez, M. A.; Battaglia, O.; Lorenzo, A.; Lorenzo, J.; Jiménez, S., & Sampaio, J. (2015). Effectiveness during ball screens in elite basketball games. Journal of Sports Sciences, 33 (17), 1844-1852. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2015.1014829 Gómez, M. A.; Lago-Peñas, C.; Viaño, J., & González-Garcia, I. (2014). Effects of game location, team quality and final outcome on game-related statistics in professional handball close games. Kinesiology, 46 (2), 249–257. Gómez, M. A.; Lorenzo, A.; Ibáñez, S. J., & Sampaio, J. (2013). Ball possession effectiveness in men’s and women's elite basketball according to situational variables in different game periods. Journal of Sports Sciences, 31 (14), 1578–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2013.792942 González, A. (2012). Análisis de la eficiencia del contraataque en balonmano como elemento de rendimiento deportivo. Universidad de León. Retrieved from: http://hdl.handle.net/10612/2208 Gruić, I.; Vuleta, D., & Milanović, D. (2006). Performance indicators of teams at the 2003 World Handball Championship in Portugal. Kinesiology, 38 (2), 164–175. Gutiérrez, O., & Ruiz, J. L. (2013). Data Envelopment Analysis and Cross-Efficiency Evaluation in the Management of Sports Teams: The Assessment of Game Performance of Players in the Spanish Handball League. Sport Management, 27 , 217–229. https://doi.org/10.1123/jsm.27.3.217 Higham, D. G.; Hopkins, W. G.; Pyne, D. B., & Anson, J. M. (2014). Performance indicators related to points scoring and winning in international rugby sevens. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 13 (2), 358–364. Hughes, M. D., & Bartlett, R. M. (2002). The use of performance indicators in performance analysis. Journal of Sports Sciences, 20 (10), 739–754. https://doi.org/10.1080/026404102320675602 Kim, S. E.; Lee, M.; Hong, J. H.; Park, J. H.; Jeon, M.; Jeon, M. S.; Jo, E. H., & Woo, S. H. (2014). Validity evidence of Korean woman handball ranking system. Research Quarterly for Exercise and Sport, 85 (S1), A115. Lames, M. & McGarry, T. (2007). On the search for reliable performance indicators in game sports. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 7 (1), 62-79. Liu, H.; Gómez, M. A.; Lago-Peñas, C., & Sampaio, J. (2015). Match statistics related to winning in the group stage of 2014 Brazil FIFA World Cup. Journal of Sports Sciences, 33 (12), 1205-1213. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2015.1022578 Lupo, C.; Condello, G.; Capranica, L., & Tessitore, A. (2014). Women’s water polo World Championships: Technical and tactical aspects of winning and losing teams in close and unbalanced games. Journal of Strength & Conditioning Research, 28 (1), 210-222. https://doi.org/10.1519/JSC.0b013e3182955d90 Michalsik, L. B.; Madsen, K., & Aagaard, P. (2015). Technical match characteristics and influence of body anthropometry on playing performance in male elite team handball. Journal of Strength & Conditioning Research, 29 (2), 416-428. https://doi.org/10.1519/JSC.0000000000000595 Meletakos, P. G.; Vagenas, G., & Bayios, I. (2011). A multivariate assessment of offensive performance indicators in men’s handball: trends and differences in the World Championships. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 11 , 284–294. O’Donoghue, P. (2010). Research methods for sports performance analysis. Oxon: Routledge. O’Shaughnessy, D. M. (2006). Possession versus position: Strategic evaluation in AFL. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 5 (4), 533–540. Ohnjec, K.; Vuleta, D.; Milanović, D., & Gruić, I. (2008). Performance indicators of teams at the 2003 World Handball Championship for Women in Croatia. Kinesiology, 40 (1), 69–79. Oliveira, T.; Gómez, M., & Sampaio, J. (2012). Effects of Game Location, Period, and Quality of Opposition in Elite Handball Performances. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 114 (3), 783–794. https://doi.org/10.2466/30.06.PMS.114.3.783-794 Pascual, X.; Lago, C., & Casáis, L. (2010). La influencia de la eficacia del portero en el rendimiento de los equipos de balonmano. Apunts Educació Física i Esports, 99 (1), 72–81. Rogulj, N.; Srhoj, V., & Srhoj, L. (2004). The contribution of collective attack tactics in differentiating handball score efficiency. Collegium Antropologicum, 28 (2), 739–746. Sáez, F.; Romero, A., & Feu, S. (2009). Diferencias en las estadísticas de juego entre los equipos ganadores y perdedores de la Copa del Rey 2008 de Balonmano Masculino. E-Balonmano, 5 (3), 107–114. Sampaio, J.; Ibáñez, S, & Lorenzo, A. (2013). Applied sports performance analysis. Basketball. In T. McGarry, P. O’Donoghue J., and J. Sampaio (Eds.), Routledge Handbook of Sports Performance Analysis (pp. 357–358). New York: Routledge. Skarbalius, A.; Pukénas, K., &Vidunaité, G. (2013). Sport performance profile in men’s European modern handball: discriminant analysis between winners and losers. Ugdymas, Kuno Kultura, Sportas, 3 (90), 44-54. Srhoj, V.; Rogulj, N.; Padovan, M., & Katić, R. (2001). Influence of the attack end conduction on match result in handball. Collegium Antropologicum, 25 (2), 611–617. Teles, N., & Volossovith, A. (2015). The influence of contextual variables on the team's performance in the last 10 minutes of the handball match. Revista Brasileira de Educação Física e Esporte, 29 (2), 177-187. https://doi.org/10.1590/1807-55092015000200177 Vaz, L.; Mouchet, A.; Carreras, D., & Morente, H. (2011). The importance of rugby game-related statistics to discriminate winners and losers at the elite level competitions in close and balanced games. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 11 (3), 130–141. Vaz, L.; van Rooyen, M., & Sampaio, J. (2010). Rugby game-related statistics that discriminate between winning and losing teams in IRB and super twelve close games. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 9 (1), 51–55. Volossovitch, A. (2013). Handball. In T. McGarry, P. O’Donoghue and J. Sampaio (Eds.), Routledge Handbook of Sports Performance Analysis (pp. 380-392). New York: Routledge. Volossovitch, A.; Dumangane, M., & Rosati, N. (2009). Does the relationship between the past teams' performances during the match and the probability of scoring depend on the match quality? Motricidade, 5 (3), 45. Vuleta, D.; Sporiš, G.; Purgar, B.; Herceg, Z., & Milanović, Z. (2012). Influence of attacking efficiency on the outcome of handball matches in the preliminary round of men’s Olimpic games 2008. Sport Science, 5 (2), 7–12. Wagner, H.; Finkenzeller, T.; Würth, S., & von Duvillard, S. P. (2014). Individual and team performance in team-handball: A review. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 13 (4), 808–816. Yamada, E.; Aida, H.; Fujimoto, H., & Nakagawa, A. (2014). Comparison of game performance among European National Women´s Handball Teams. International Journal of Sport and Health Science, 12, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.5432/ijshs.201326
其他摘要：Abstract The aim of the present study was to identify performance indicators able to predict victory in a handball match. A documental research was carried out based on data from 80 matches from the Men’s Handball World Championship, held in Qatar in 2015. Data was obtained from the International Handball Federation website. Reliability was determined through intra and inter-observer agreement. Our results show that the combination of attack, defense, and goalkeeper indicators adequately predicted winning a match. Specifically, the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that shots saved by other team’s goalkeeper, technical fouls, steals, and own goalkeeper’s saves were adequate predictors of team performance. We also analysed the cut-off points of key performance indicators that significantly predict the victory of a match. The study of objective performance indicators and their relationship with team outcome can be useful to trainers as a tool to assess different match features. Resumen El objetivo del presente estudio es identificar los indicadores de rendimiento que permiten predecir la victoria en un partido de balonmano. Se llevó a cabo un estudio documental basado en los datos de los 80 partidos del Campeonato Mundial de Balonmano Masculino, celebrado en Qatar en 2015. Los datos fueron recogidos por la Federación Internacional de Balonmano. Se calculó la fiabilidad intra e inter observador. Los resultados muestran que la combinación de indicadores de ataque, defensa y portero predijo adecuadamente ganar un partido. Específicamente, el análisis de regresión logística multivariante mostró que los lanzamientos parados por el portero del otro equipo, las faltas técnicas, los robos y las paradas del propio portero, eran predictores adecuados del rendimiento del equipo. Se establecieron puntos de corte a partir de los cuales aumenta significativamente la probabilidad de ganar el partido. El estudio de los indicadores de desempeño y su relación con los resultados del equipo puede ser una buena herramienta para evaluar diferentes características del juego. https://doi.org/10.5232/ricyde2017.04805 References/referencias Antúnez, A.; García, J.; Sáez, F.; Valle, A., & García, A. (2013). Diferencias en los indicadores de rendimiento entre los equipos ganadores y perdedores en etapas de formación en balonmano en función del género y la diferencia final de goles. E-Balonmano, 9 (1), 5–16. Balint, E., & Curiţianu, E. (2012). The importance of anticipation in increasing the defense efficiency in high performance handball. Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Braşov, 5 (54), (1), 103-112. Bilge, M. (2012). Game Analysis of Olympic, World and European Championships in Men’s Handball. Journal of Human Kinetics, 35 , 109–18. https://doi.org/10.2478/v10078-012-0084-7 Blanco, A.; Ibáñez, S. J.; Antúnez, A., & Hernández-Mendo, A. (2015). Estudio de fiabilidad de los indicadores de rendimiento en la Liga ASOBAL. Cuadernos de Psicologia del Deporte, 15 (1), 255–264. https://doi.org/10.4321/S1578-84232015000100024 Cälin, R. (2010). The analysis of the efficiency of using fastbreaks in female Handball during the World Championship in China, 2009. Science, Movement and Health, 2 , 594–599. Celes, N.; Vojvodic, M., & Skender, N. (2012). A comparative analysis of shooting efficiency in handball at EURO 2012. Sport Science and Health, 4 (2), 131–137. Daza, G. (2010). Las habilidades del pivote en la alta competición de balonmano. Universidad de Barcelona. Retrieved from: http://hdl.handle.net/10803/21618 Ferrari, W. R.; Dos Santos, J. V., & Vaz, V. P. S. (2014). Offensive process analysis in handball: Identification of game actions that differentiate winning from losing teams. American Journal of Sports Science, 2 (4), 92-96. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajss.20140204.14 Foretić, N.; Rogulj, N., & Trninic, M. (2010). The influence of situation efficiency on the result of a handball match. Sport Science, 3 , 45–51. Gabin, B.; Camerino, O.; Anguera, M.T., & Castañer, M. (2012). Lince: multiplatform sport analysis software. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 46 , 4692-4694. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.320 Georgiana, V. C., & Aurelia, I. M. (2014). Statistical Model of the Wing Players who Participated in the Women’s European Handball Championship, Serbia 2012. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 117 , 123–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.02.189 González-García, I.; Casáis, L.; Viaño, J., & Gómez, M.A. (2016). Inter-observer reliability of a real-time observation tool in handball. International Journal of Kinesiology and Sports Science, 4 (4), 1-9. Gómez, M. A.; Battaglia, O.; Lorenzo, A.; Lorenzo, J.; Jiménez, S., & Sampaio, J. (2015). Effectiveness during ball screens in elite basketball games. Journal of Sports Sciences, 33 (17), 1844-1852. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2015.1014829 Gómez, M. A.; Lago-Peñas, C.; Viaño, J., & González-Garcia, I. (2014). Effects of game location, team quality and final outcome on game-related statistics in professional handball close games. Kinesiology, 46 (2), 249–257. Gómez, M. A.; Lorenzo, A.; Ibáñez, S. J., & Sampaio, J. (2013). Ball possession effectiveness in men’s and women's elite basketball according to situational variables in different game periods. Journal of Sports Sciences, 31 (14), 1578–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2013.792942 González, A. (2012). Análisis de la eficiencia del contraataque en balonmano como elemento de rendimiento deportivo. Universidad de León. Retrieved from: http://hdl.handle.net/10612/2208 Gruić, I.; Vuleta, D., & Milanović, D. (2006). Performance indicators of teams at the 2003 World Handball Championship in Portugal. Kinesiology, 38 (2), 164–175. Gutiérrez, O., & Ruiz, J. L. (2013). Data Envelopment Analysis and Cross-Efficiency Evaluation in the Management of Sports Teams: The Assessment of Game Performance of Players in the Spanish Handball League. Sport Management, 27 , 217–229. https://doi.org/10.1123/jsm.27.3.217 Higham, D. G.; Hopkins, W. G.; Pyne, D. B., & Anson, J. M. (2014). Performance indicators related to points scoring and winning in international rugby sevens. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 13 (2), 358–364. Hughes, M. D., & Bartlett, R. M. (2002). The use of performance indicators in performance analysis. Journal of Sports Sciences, 20 (10), 739–754. https://doi.org/10.1080/026404102320675602 Kim, S. E.; Lee, M.; Hong, J. H.; Park, J. H.; Jeon, M.; Jeon, M. S.; Jo, E. H., & Woo, S. H. (2014). Validity evidence of Korean woman handball ranking system. Research Quarterly for Exercise and Sport, 85 (S1), A115. Lames, M. & McGarry, T. (2007). On the search for reliable performance indicators in game sports. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 7 (1), 62-79. Liu, H.; Gómez, M. A.; Lago-Peñas, C., & Sampaio, J. (2015). Match statistics related to winning in the group stage of 2014 Brazil FIFA World Cup. Journal of Sports Sciences, 33 (12), 1205-1213. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2015.1022578 Lupo, C.; Condello, G.; Capranica, L., & Tessitore, A. (2014). Women’s water polo World Championships: Technical and tactical aspects of winning and losing teams in close and unbalanced games. Journal of Strength & Conditioning Research, 28 (1), 210-222. https://doi.org/10.1519/JSC.0b013e3182955d90 Michalsik, L. B.; Madsen, K., & Aagaard, P. (2015). Technical match characteristics and influence of body anthropometry on playing performance in male elite team handball. Journal of Strength & Conditioning Research, 29 (2), 416-428. https://doi.org/10.1519/JSC.0000000000000595 Meletakos, P. G.; Vagenas, G., & Bayios, I. (2011). A multivariate assessment of offensive performance indicators in men’s handball: trends and differences in the World Championships. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 11 , 284–294. O’Donoghue, P. (2010). Research methods for sports performance analysis. Oxon: Routledge. O’Shaughnessy, D. M. (2006). Possession versus position: Strategic evaluation in AFL. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 5 (4), 533–540. Ohnjec, K.; Vuleta, D.; Milanović, D., & Gruić, I. (2008). Performance indicators of teams at the 2003 World Handball Championship for Women in Croatia. Kinesiology, 40 (1), 69–79. Oliveira, T.; Gómez, M., & Sampaio, J. (2012). Effects of Game Location, Period, and Quality of Opposition in Elite Handball Performances. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 114 (3), 783–794. https://doi.org/10.2466/30.06.PMS.114.3.783-794 Pascual, X.; Lago, C., & Casáis, L. (2010). La influencia de la eficacia del portero en el rendimiento de los equipos de balonmano. Apunts Educació Física i Esports, 99 (1), 72–81. Rogulj, N.; Srhoj, V., & Srhoj, L. (2004). The contribution of collective attack tactics in differentiating handball score efficiency. Collegium Antropologicum, 28 (2), 739–746. Sáez, F.; Romero, A., & Feu, S. (2009). Diferencias en las estadísticas de juego entre los equipos ganadores y perdedores de la Copa del Rey 2008 de Balonmano Masculino. E-Balonmano, 5 (3), 107–114. Sampaio, J.; Ibáñez, S, & Lorenzo, A. (2013). Applied sports performance analysis. Basketball. In T. McGarry, P. O’Donoghue J., and J. Sampaio (Eds.), Routledge Handbook of Sports Performance Analysis (pp. 357–358). New York: Routledge. Skarbalius, A.; Pukénas, K., &Vidunaité, G. (2013). Sport performance profile in men’s European modern handball: discriminant analysis between winners and losers. Ugdymas, Kuno Kultura, Sportas, 3 (90), 44-54. Srhoj, V.; Rogulj, N.; Padovan, M., & Katić, R. (2001). Influence of the attack end conduction on match result in handball. Collegium Antropologicum, 25 (2), 611–617. Teles, N., & Volossovith, A. (2015). The influence of contextual variables on the team's performance in the last 10 minutes of the handball match. Revista Brasileira de Educação Física e Esporte, 29 (2), 177-187. https://doi.org/10.1590/1807-55092015000200177 Vaz, L.; Mouchet, A.; Carreras, D., & Morente, H. (2011). The importance of rugby game-related statistics to discriminate winners and losers at the elite level competitions in close and balanced games. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 11 (3), 130–141. Vaz, L.; van Rooyen, M., & Sampaio, J. (2010). Rugby game-related statistics that discriminate between winning and losing teams in IRB and super twelve close games. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 9 (1), 51–55. Volossovitch, A. (2013). Handball. In T. McGarry, P. O’Donoghue and J. Sampaio (Eds.), Routledge Handbook of Sports Performance Analysis (pp. 380-392). New York: Routledge. Volossovitch, A.; Dumangane, M., & Rosati, N. (2009). Does the relationship between the past teams' performances during the match and the probability of scoring depend on the match quality? Motricidade, 5 (3), 45. Vuleta, D.; Sporiš, G.; Purgar, B.; Herceg, Z., & Milanović, Z. (2012). Influence of attacking efficiency on the outcome of handball matches in the preliminary round of men’s Olimpic games 2008. Sport Science, 5 (2), 7–12. Wagner, H.; Finkenzeller, T.; Würth, S., & von Duvillard, S. P. (2014). Individual and team performance in team-handball: A review. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 13 (4), 808–816. Yamada, E.; Aida, H.; Fujimoto, H., & Nakagawa, A. (2014). Comparison of game performance among European National Women´s Handball Teams. International Journal of Sport and Health Science, 12, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.5432/ijshs.201326
关键词：balonmano;estadísticas de partido;predicción;indicadores de rendimiento / handball;match statistics;prediction;performance indicators
