期刊名称：International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
电子版ISSN：2146-4553
出版年度：2017
卷号：7
期号：5
页码：312-322
语种：English
出版社：EconJournals
摘要：This paper analyzes whether oil price changes can predict stock market returns in the three largest oil-producing countries in the world, namely, Saudi Arabia (SA), Russia and the United States, using different vector error correction models for the period 2000:01-2015:05. Our main hypothesis is that the effects of oil price changes on stock prices depends not only on whether the origin of the oil price shocks is from the demand side or supply side but also on whether the country under study is a net oil-importing or oil-exporting country. The results confirm our hypothesis. In particular, oil price changes driven by supply shocks exert a clearly positive impact on stock market returns in Russia, a negative impact on the US and an ambiguous impact on KSA. However, oil price changes driven by demand shocks have a positive impact on all three countries.
其他摘要：This paper analyzes whether oil price changes can predict stock market returns in the three largest oil-producing countries in the world, namely, Saudi Arabia (SA), Russia and the United States, using different vector error correction models for the period 2000:01-2015:05. Our main hypothesis is that the effects of oil price changes on stock prices depends not only on whether the origin of the oil price shocks is from the demand side or supply side but also on whether the country under study is a net oil-importing or oil-exporting country. The results confirm our hypothesis. In particular, oil price changes driven by supply shocks exert a clearly positive impact on stock market returns in Russia, a negative impact on the US and an ambiguous impact on KSA. However, oil price changes driven by demand shocks have a positive impact on all three countries. Keywords: Oil Demand Shock, Oil Supply Shock, Oil Importing Countries, Oil Exporting Countries, Stock Market Returns JEL Classifications: C13, G10, G12, Q43
