期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2017
卷号：114
期号：45
页码：11938-11943
DOI：10.1073/pnas.1711927114
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Evolutionary prediction is of deep practical and philosophical importance. Here we show, using a simple computational protein model, that protein evolution remains unpredictable, even if one knows the effects of all mutations in an ancestral protein background. We performed a virtual deep mutational scan—revealing the individual and pairwise epistatic effects of every mutation to our model protein—and then used this information to predict evolutionary trajectories. Our predictions were poor. This is a consequence of statistical thermodynamics. Proteins exist as ensembles of similar conformations. The effect of a mutation depends on the relative probabilities of conformations in the ensemble, which in turn, depend on the exact amino acid sequence of the protein. Accumulating substitutions alter the relative probabilities of conformations, thereby changing the effects of future mutations. This manifests itself as subtle but pervasive high-order epistasis. Uncertainty in the effect of each mutation accumulates and undermines prediction. Because conformational ensembles are an inevitable feature of proteins, this is likely universal.
