摘要：The purpose of this study is to predict changes in the season for outdoor water activities due to climate change. Nine public outdoor swimming pools in three megacities of South Korea (Seoul, Daegu, and Busan) were selected as study sites. To determine the preferred weather conditions for outdoor water activities, the preference functions of weather elements for outdoor water activities were structured by finding the best-fitting lines with the Z-score of the number of visitors, which is calculated for each swimming pool each year, and the inflection points or the stabilized point of preference functions are set as thresholds for preferred weather conditions for outdoor water activities. To predict changes in the preferred season for outdoor water activities, future weather data for the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s derived from RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios are adapted to the thresholds of preferred weather conditions. The results of this study show that the preferred temperature range for outdoor water activities is: 24.6 °C to 35.0 °C in Seoul, 25.5 °C to 35.5 °C in Daegu, and 27.4 °C to 34.4 °C in Busan, and that the maximum threshold for precipitation is: 36.5 mm in Seoul, 31.5 mm in Daegu, and 26.5 mm in Busan. The results of this study show that the preferred season for outdoor water activities will expand compared to its current duration due to warmer temperatures in the future, and the preferred period for these activities will shift from June to September to May to June and September to October due to extremely hot weather in July and August beginning in the 2030s. The results of this study imply that there will be major changes in the demand and operation of outdoor water activities due to climate change, making it necessary to begin preparations to combat and respond to climate change.
关键词：climate change; recreation; outdoor water activities; RCP scenarios; South Korea
