摘要：Based on panel data of 28 manufacturing industries sectors in 2005–2015 years, this paper first estimated the level of 28 manufacturing industries sectors technological progress, and then, using panel threshold technology, calculated the impact of three environmental regulation change rates on technological progress change rate to analyze the relationship between environmental regulations and technology innovation. The results show that: (1) The influence of the change rates of waste gas, wastewater and solid waste’s environmental regulation intensity towards the change rate of production technological progress has two thresholds. Only the proper change rate of environmental regulation intensity can lead to a desired change rate of production technological progress. However, there are differences in the thresholds of the change rates of three kinds of environmental regulation intensities, and the optimal change rates of waste gas, wastewater and waste solid are 15.07%–55.31%, 17.06%–38.02% and 33.12%–47.99%, respectively. (2) In the change rates of waste gas, wastewater and waste solid’s environmental regulation intensity, there are 8, 10 and 3 industries at a reasonable level, respectively, while others industries are below or above the reasonable level and unable to stimulate technical and management innovation in enterprises. Hence, to achieve a win-win situation between environmental protection and production technological progress, different environmental regulation intensities should be planned according to different pollutants in various manufacturing industries.
关键词：environmental regulation intensity; production technological progress; change rate; threshold
