摘要：Increasing precipitation by climate change and the growing number of impervious areas present greater risk of disaster damage in urban areas. Urban green infrastructure can be an effective mitigation alternative in highly developed and concentrated area. This study investigates the effect of various types of urban green infrastructure on mitigating disaster damage in Korea. Tobit model is used to analyze the factors that determine disaster damage. Damage variation is predicted with scenarios of RCP 8.5 and urban green spaces. Seventy-four districts and counties in seven metropolitan areas are defined as the unit and the period from 2005 to 2013 is considered in the analysis. The results indicate that higher urban green ratio, sewer length, financial independence rate, and local government’s budget are relating to lower disaster damage. Based on a precipitation level of RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050, an increase in economic damage is expected to range from 262 to 1086%. However, with an increase in urban green ratio by 10%, increased economic damage is only expected to range from 217 to 1013%. The results suggest that green spaces play important role to mitigate precipitation related disasters. Highly concentrated urban areas need to consider various types of urban green infrastructure to prepare for an increase in precipitation due to climate change.
关键词：climate change; disaster mitigation; urban green infrastructure; Tobit model; Korea metropolitan areas
