摘要：Means for operational regional forecast of catastrophic weather events in the Black Sea region are presented. It is shown that the flooding in Krasnodar Region, Russia, July 7, 2012 was predicted five days before the tragic events, and the catastrophic storm of November 11, 2007 off the coast of Crimea was also predicted three days in advance. Quality of the regional forecast and its advantages over the global forecast are discussed. The operational regional modeling of the atmosphere in the Marine Hydrophysical Institute (National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine) could become an important element of a possible early warning system for weather disasters in the Azov-Black Sea region.
关键词：forecast of weather disasters;regional mesoscale atmospheric models;early warning system of weather disasters;Azov-Black Sea region;mesoscale atmospheric processes
