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  • 标题:Regional economic integration in Mercosur: The role of real and financial sectors
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Hem C. Basnet ; Gyan Pradhan
  • 期刊名称:Review of Development Finance
  • 印刷版ISSN:1879-9337
  • 出版年度:2017
  • 卷号:7
  • 期号:2
  • 页码:107-119
  • DOI:10.1016/j.rdf.2017.05.001
  • 出版社:Elsevier
  • 摘要:

    This study explores economic interdependence in Mercosur by examining common trends and common cycles among key macro-variables representing both the real and financial sectors of the economy. The serial correlation common features test reveals that the key macroeconomic variables (real output, investment, and intra-regional trade) share common trends in the long run suggesting that macroeconomic interdependence in the Mercosur economies is strong. The exchange rates demonstrate co-movement in the long run as they share a single common trend. These finding suggests that these economies cannot swing away from long-run equilibrium for an extended duration; they will be brought together by their common trends. Similarly, each variable under consideration shares common cycles lending support to the notion of short-run synchronous movement. The trend-cycle decomposition results reveal that the cyclical movements of real output and trade are synchronized with a high degree of positive correlations. Our overall findings thus provide justification and optimism for deeper economic integration among Mercosur countries.

  • 关键词:Economic integration ; Co-movement ; Business cycles ; Mercosur ; Exchange rates
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