期刊名称：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
印刷版ISSN：1755-1307
电子版ISSN：1755-1315
出版年度：2018
卷号：121
期号：5
页码：052089
DOI：10.1088/1755-1315/121/5/052089
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing
摘要：Traditional power forecasting models cannot efficiently take various factors into account, neither to identify the relation factors. In this paper, the mutual information in information theory and the artificial intelligence random forests algorithm are introduced into the medium and long-term electricity demand prediction. Mutual information can identify the high relation factors based on the value of average mutual information between a variety of variables and electricity demand, different industries may be highly associated with different variables. The random forests algorithm was used for building the different industries forecasting models according to the different correlation factors. The data of electricity consumption in Jiangsu Province is taken as a practical example, and the above methods are compared with the methods without regard to mutual information and the industries. The simulation results show that the above method is scientific, effective, and can provide higher prediction accuracy.
