期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2018
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：Timely and reliable statistics are essential for economic analysis. This boxreviews and assesses the reliability of Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate ofquarterly GDP growth for the euro area, which was introduced at the beginning of2016. The euro area’s single monetary policy is dependent on timely, reliable andcomparable indicators that accurately reflect economic developments. In thisrespect, national accounts provide a comprehensive and consistent picture of theeconomy, making them a cornerstone of monetary policy analysis. The introductionof a preliminary GDP flash estimate was therefore a welcome development in termsof the continuous efforts to improve Europe’s statistical landscape. Importantly,however, increased timeliness should ideally be achieved without any loss ofreliability, which is defined here as the closeness of that initial estimate tosubsequent estimates. Information about reliability can help us to interpret initialestimates in terms of uncertainty surrounding data releases or help us to guess thedirection of any future revisions. If economic indicators provide misleading signalsregarding economic developments, which are later corrected by revisions, this mayhave adverse consequences for economic analysis.
