期刊名称：Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
印刷版ISSN：2307-0331
电子版ISSN：2312-9824
出版年度：2016
期号：3
页码：191-204
出版社：ISEDT RAS
摘要：Due to the fact that Russia is now a member of the World Trade Organization, long-term forecastingbecomes an objectively necessary condition that helps choose an effective science-based long-term strategyfor development of dairy cattle breeding that would take into consideration intellectual and innovativecharacteristics. Current structure of available statistical information does not meet modern challengesof innovation development and does not reflect adequately the trends of ongoing changes. The papersuggests a system of indicators to analyze the status, development and prospects of dairy cattle breedingin the region; this system provides timely identification of emerging risks and threats of deviation fromthe specified parameters. The system included indicators contained in the current statistical reportingand new indicators of innovation development of the industry, the quality of human capital and the levelof government support. When designing the system of indicators, we used several methodological aspects of the Oslo Manual, which the Federal State Statistics Service considers to be an official methodological document concerning the collection of information about innovation activities. A structured system of indicators shifts the emphasis in the analysis of the final results to the conditions and prerequisites that help achieve forecast performance indicators in the functioning of Russia’s economy under WTO rules and make substantiated management decisions.
关键词：forecasting; dairy cattle breeding; region; system of indicators; innovative development;information base.
