摘要：The objective of this work is to estimate the financial impact of increasing the monitoring period for breast cancer, which is financed by the Sistema de Protección Social en Salud (SPSS—Social Protection System in Health). A micro-simulation model was developed to monitor a cohort of patients with breast cancer, and also an estimation was made on the probability of surviving the monitoring period financed by the SPSS. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, the maximum expected cost was estimated to broaden such monitoring. Morbimortality information of the Ministry of Health and cases of breast cancer treated by the SPSS were used. Between 2013 and 2026, the financial resources to provide monitoring during 10 years to women diagnosed with breast cancer would reach up to $3607.40 million pesos on a base scenario, $4151.79 million pesos on the pessimistic scenario and $3414.85 million pesos on an optimistic scenario. In the base scenario, additional expenditure represents an annual increase of 9.1% of resources allocated to treating this disease, and 3.0% of the availability of the resources for the Fondo de Protección contra Gastos Catastróficos (FPGC—Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenditure). Increasing monitoring for patients with breast cancer would not represent a financial risk to the sustainability of the FPGC, and could increase patients survival and life quality.
关键词：Financial management ; Financial risk ; Micro simulation ; Monte Carlo method ; Breast cancer
