摘要：Shift-share analysis of employment as a measuring instrument for human resource management is proposed by this study. The results obtained through this technique can assist human resource management on the macro-level in making informed and strategic decisions regarding future employment practices and trends. This technique is often applied to studies of economic geography, and is illustrated in this article through its application to the estimation of future employment potential of manufacturing industries of South Africa’s Southern District Municipality. The economy in this region is mainly dependent on gold mining, which is declining as gold reserves are becoming depleted. As a result, a large section of the area’s population will be unemployed in future, causing adversity and other development needs. Shift-share analysis provides insight into the shifts of employment in the various sectors over time, as well as insight into the national share effect on employment in the region, including the regional-industrial mix and the competitive share effects. It was found that the sectors with the highest employment creation potential are: transport equipment, wood and paper products, metal products, and furniture. Some suggestions are also made regarding the ways that this information can be utilised in human resource management.
关键词：Human capital; CES Econometric modelling;Endogenous growth theory;Fiscal stimulus
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