摘要：Due to global climate change, it is possible to experience the new trend of flood in the near future. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the impact of climate change on flood when establishing sustainable water resources management policy. In order to predict the future flood events, the frequency analysis is commonly applied. Traditional methods for flood frequency analysis are based on the assumption of stationarity, which is questionable under the climate change, although many techniques that are based on stationarity have been developed. Therefore, this study aims to investigate and compare all of the corresponding effects of three different data sets (observed, RCP 4.5, and 8.5), two different frequency models (stationary and non-stationary), and two different frequency analysis procedures (rainfall frequency first approach and direct discharge approach). As a result, the design flood from the observed data by the stationary frequency model and rainfall frequency first approach can be concluded the most reasonable. Thus, the design flood from the RCP 8.5 by the non-stationary frequency model and rainfall frequency first approach should be carefully used for the establishment of flood prevention measure while considering climate change and uncertainty.
关键词：flood frequency analysis; non-stationarity; climate change; uncertainty
