摘要：The amount of damage caused by landslides has increased due to climate change. Adaptation plans are required to help cope with landslides in order to reduce the extent of the damage. Landslide hazard analysis can help create adaptation plans. Analyzing the cost of damage of and the effect of adaptation to landslides is an effective way to support decision makers. The cost of damage is calculated using the costs of damage incurred in residential and transportation areas in the past, based on data from annual reports. Spatial distribution models are used to analyze landslide hazard areas in the present and the future. Future or potential landslide hazards are estimated by using climate change scenarios through representative concentration pathways. The effects of adaptation measures are assessed using modified variables and a cost-benefit analysis. The uncertainty of the cost of damage is considered using average, minimum, and maximum values. As a result, the methods used to estimate future costs of damage are developed, and the effects of adaptation are analyzed. The future cost of damage is calculated for every climate change scenario. The effect of adaptation are analyzed and areas with a reduced risk of landslides are identified, reducing the cost of damage and adaptation costs, as well as the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Improving soil drainage is the most effective measure among the four measures analyzed. This study can help estimate future costs of damage and analyze the effect of adaptation in creating effective adaptation plans.
关键词：adaptation plan; effective decision making; shallow landslides; spatial distribution model; benefit and cost analysis for adaptation
