摘要：The prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica has decreased significantly, and the responses changing from control to elimination in Jiangsu Province, P.R. China. How to estimate the change in prevalence of schistosomiasis using only serological data will be important and useful. We collected serum samples from 2011 to 2015 to build a serum bank from Dantu County of Jiangsu, China. Serum samples were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), the positive rate and optical density (OD) value were obtained. The Bayesian model including the prior information of sensitivity and specificity of ELISA was established, and the estimated infection rates were obtained for different years, genders and age groups. There was no significant difference in the mean OD between different years and genders, but there was a significant difference between the different age groups. There were statistically significant differences in the positive rate for different years and age groups, but no significant difference at different genders. The estimated infection rate for the five years was 1.288, 1.456, 1.032, 1.485 and 1.358%, respectively. There was no significant difference between different years and between genders, but a significant difference between different age groups. The risk of schistosomiasis transmission in this area still exists, and risk monitoring of schistosomiasis should be strengthened.
