期刊名称：Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, Časopis za ekonomsku teoriju praksu
印刷版ISSN：1331-8004
出版年度：2018
卷号：36
期号：1
页码：309-336
DOI：10.18045/zbefri.2018.1.309
语种：English
出版社：University of Rijeka Faculty of Economics
摘要：The key goal of this research is to empirically determine whether the fiscal policy and the choice of exchange rate regime played significant role in current account determination in 16 CEE countries, with respect to large cyclical fluctuations of economic activity in the period 1999 – 2012. The methodology is based on the panel estimation of the impact of exchange rate regimes and government balance, being the key explanatory variables, on current account balance. The main results show that contrary to the “twin deficit” hypothesis government balance had non- significant and negative association with current account. On the other hand, fixed exchange rate regime contributed to the accumulation of current deficits, especially during the boom years. The results of the estimation are robust to the diJerent model specifications and estimation methods applied. It is indicated that divergence between current and government balance is associated with the fluctuations of the economic activity, since the increase in government revenues during the good years reduced deficits despite pro-cyclical fiscal policy. Also, it has been argued that in the period prior to the crisis, in the countries pursuing fixed regimes current deficit was accumulated at higher pace when compared to countries with floating regimes, despite appreciation pressures deriving from the large inflow of foreign capital. Based on the results of empirical analysis, the recommendations on benefits of floating regimes are given to policy makers in CEE countries.
关键词：twin deficit; exchange rate regime; current account; CEE; panel analysis
