期刊名称：Discussion Papers in Economics / Department of Economics, University of York
出版年度：2010
卷号：2010
出版社：University of York
摘要：Referring to the literature on optimal stopping under sequential sampling developed by Chernoff and collaborators, we solve a dynamic model of the economic evaluation of a new health technology, deriving optimal rules for technology adoption, research abandonment and continuation as functions of sample size. The model extends the existing literature to the case where an adoption decision can be deferred and involves a degree of irreversibility. We explore the model's applicability in a case study of the economic evaluation of Drug Eluting Stents (DES), deriving dynamic adoption and abandonment thresholds which are a function of the model's economic parameters. A key result is that referring to a single cost-effectiveness threshold may be sub-optimal.
