摘要：Background Although several previous studies have found a positive association between ambient ozone and mortality, the observed effect may be confounded by other secondary pollutants that are produced concurrently with ozone. Objectives We addressed the question of whether the ozone–mortality relationship is entirely a reflection of the adverse effect of ozone, or whether it is, at least in part, an effect of other secondary pollutants. Methods Separate time-series models were fit to 3–6 years of data between 2000 and 2005 from 18 U.S. communities. The association between nonaccidental mortality was examined with ozone alone and with ozone after adjustment for fine particle mass, sulfate, organic carbon, or nitrate concentrations. The effect estimates from each of these models were pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis to obtain an across-community average. Results We found a 0.89% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.45–1.33%] increase in nonaccidental mortality with a 10-ppb increase in same-day 24-hr summertime ozone across the 18 communities. After adjustment for PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm) mass or nitrate, this estimate decreased slightly; but when adjusted for particle sulfate, the estimate was substantially reduced to 0.58% (95% CI, –0.33 to 1.49%). Conclusions Our results demonstrate that the association between ozone and mortality is confounded by particle sulfate, suggesting that some secondary particle pollutants could be responsible for part of the observed ozone effect.
关键词：confounding; meta-analysis; mortality; nitrate; organic carbon; ozone; PM 2.5 ; secondary pollutants; sulfates; time series
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