期刊名称：Documents de Travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne
印刷版ISSN：1955-611X
出版年度：2017
出版社：Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne
摘要：How could the burden of GHG emission reduction be shared amongcountries? We address this arguably basic question by purely statisticalmethods that do not rely on any normative judgment about the criteriaaccording to which it should be answered. The sum of current NationallyDetermined Contributions to reducing GHG emissions would result in anaverage temperature rise in 2100 of the order of 3°C to 3.2°C. Implementingpolicies that enable to achieve the objective of a worldwide averagetemperature rise below 2°C obviously requires setting a more consistentand efficient set of national emissions targets. While a scientific consensushas been reached about the global carbon budget that we are acing,given the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement, no such consensus prevailson how this budget is to be divided among countries. This paper proposesa Climate Liabilities Assessment Integrated Methodology (CLAIM)which enables to determine national GHG budgets compliant with anyaverage temperature target and time horizon. Our methodology does neitherresort to any scenario nor any simulation-based model. Rather, itcomputes the allocation of 2°C-compatible national carbon budgets whichhas a priori the highest probability of emerging from the international discussion,whatever being the criteria on which the latter might be based.As such it provides a framework ensuring the highest probability of reachinga consensus. In particular, it avoids the pitfall of arbitrarily assigningweights according, say, to “capacity” or “responsibility” criteria, and simultaneouslyunifies the different methodologies that have been proposed inthe literature aiming at setting national GHG budgets. Sensitivity testsconfirm the robustness of our methodology.
关键词：climate change; global warming; GHG emissions; distribution of;GHG emissions; emissions gap; 2°C scenario; carbon budget; Intended Nationally;Determined Contributions
