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文章基本信息

  • 标题:The fiscal projection framework in long-term scenarios
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Yvan Guillemette ; David Turner
  • 期刊名称:Economics Department Working Papers / OECD
  • 印刷版ISSN:0259-4633
  • 出版年度:2017
  • 卷号:2017
  • 出版社:Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
  • 摘要:

    The paper describes the fiscal framework used in long-term economic scenarios, with some emphasis on revisions made since the 2013 vintage of the long-term model. Long-term projections for public spending on pensions, health and long-term care are now separate from other primary expenditure and sourced from previous OECD work taking account of population ageing and other cost pressures. Other primary expenditure are assumed to remain constant in real terms on a per capita basis, rather than remaining stable as a share of GDP. This difference is important for long-term fiscal projections because government finances are sensitive to the employment rate, whereas expenditure is linked to the total population. A fiscal rule adjusts government revenue to ensure that public debt eventually stabilises as a share of GDP, making government revenue as a share of GDP the preferred indicator of future fiscal pressure.

  • 关键词:Fiscal projections; long-term scenarios; long-term model
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