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  • 标题:Emission pathways to achieve 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Xuanming Su ; Kiyoshi Takahashi ; Shinichiro Fujimori
  • 期刊名称:Earth's Future
  • 电子版ISSN:2328-4277
  • 出版年度:2017
  • 卷号:5
  • 期号:6
  • 页码:592-604
  • DOI:10.1002/2016EF000492
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
  • 摘要:

    We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0°C and 1.5°C climate targets by considering the abatement potentials of a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the inter‐temporal dynamic optimization model DICE‐2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new marginal abatement cost curve derived under moderate assumptions regarding future socioeconomic development—the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) scenario. Second, we addressed emission abatement for not only industrial CO2 but also land‐use CO2, CH4, N2O, halogenated gases, CO, volatile organic compounds, SO x , NO x , black carbon and organic carbon. Third, we improved the treatment of the non‐CO2 components in the climate module based on MAGICC 6.0. We obtained the following findings: (1) It is important to address the individual emissions in an analysis of low stabilization scenarios because abating land‐use CO2, non‐CO2 and aerosol emissions also contributes to maintaining a low level of radiative forcing and substantially affects the climate costs. (2) The 2.0°C target can be efficiently reached under the assumptions of the SSP2 scenario. (3) The 1.5°C target can be met with early deep cuts under the assumption of a temperature overshoot, and it will triple the carbon price and double the mitigation cost compared with the 2.0°C case.

  • 关键词:Climate change;Integrated assessment models;DICE;Anthropogenic emissions;SSP scenarios
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