期刊名称：GI_FORUM - Journal for Geographic Information Science
电子版ISSN：2308-1708
出版年度：2015
页码：72-80
DOI：10.1553/giscience2015s72
出版社：ÖAW Verlag, Wien
摘要：Uncertainty is associated with GIS- Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (GIS-MCDA) whenapplied to disaster modeling. Technically speaking, GIS-MCDA model outcomes are proneto multiple types of uncertainty and error. In order to minimize the inherent uncertainty,within this research we introduced a novel approach of spatial explicit uncertainty andsensitivity analysis for GIS-MCDA models. This novel approach is developed based onearly works published by FEZIZADEH et al. 2014a, 2014b and makes use the capability ofFuzzy-Analytical Hierarchical Process (FAHP), Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Variancebased Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA). This approach was examined on forest firesusceptibility mapping. The methodology contains of three different phases. Within the firststep, weights were computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) forforest fire susceptibility through FAHP. In the second step, the uncertainty and sensitivityof Forest Fire Risk Mapping was analyzed as a function of weights using MSC and GSA.Finally, the results were validated against the forest fire inventory database. The resultsindicate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved byapplying the proposed sensitivity uncertainty analysis approach.
