期刊名称：GI_FORUM - Journal for Geographic Information Science
电子版ISSN：2308-1708
出版年度：2015
页码：600-609
DOI：10.1553/giscience2015s600
出版社：ÖAW Verlag, Wien
摘要：In the course of climate change, extreme weather events and their consequences are likelyto increase in the next decades. To enable publicly available predictions preceding an event,we operate an Advanced Research Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF-ARW) limitedarea model to ensure pro-active mitigation strategies before the start of a storm event. Todemonstrate the actual model performance for multiple stakeholders, we compared theprediction with publicly available measurements from nearby stations recorded during theextreme event, starting in the evening of October 22nd, 2014 in the Mondsee catchment. Inthe beginning, the model prediction highly underestimated the rainfall at most of theweather stations. However, the prediction accuracy increased from 54 to 30 hours in advanceto the event. For the Mondsee weather station located inside the catchment, the predictions30 and 6 hours in advance had an accuracy of -32% and -28%, respectively. However,the prediction was challenged by extremely unstable weather conditions. Nevertheless,the prediction forecasted an event where flooding was a very likely consequence,considering the spatial-temporal amount of rainfall predicted. Thus, an early warning messageto responsible stakeholders would have been appropriate for pro-active mitigationaction in this case.
