期刊名称：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
印刷版ISSN：1755-1307
电子版ISSN：1755-1315
出版年度：2018
卷号：170
期号：4
页码：042046
DOI：10.1088/1755-1315/170/4/042046
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing
摘要：The risk forecasting and modeling during the construction period of water conservancy and hydropower projects are solved by including early warning of risk in the grey system problem. In order to mitigate the problem of modeling difficulties caused by short sequence and lack of information, change in the parameter function of the data sequence, mutation and discontinuity of the original monitoring data have been overcome. In addition, the traditional grey prediction model is upgraded to increases the focus on new interest so that the system change trend reflected by modified model is investigated profoundly. Similarly, modified model is built based on time-varying parameters that greatly enhanced the fitting and accuracy of the forecasting model. Its application realms prove that the method is effective and reasonable.
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