摘要：The statistical modeling of natural disasters is an indispensable tool for extracting information for prevention and risk reduction casualties. The Poisson distribution can reveal the characteristics of1 a natural disaster. However, this distribution is insufficient for the clustering of natural events and related casualties. The best approach is to use a Neyman type A (NTA) distribution which has the feature that two or more events occur in a short time. We obtain some properties of the NTA distribution and suggest that it could provide a suitable description to analyze the natural disaster distribution and casualties. We support this argument using disaster events, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, forest fires, avalanches, and rock falls in Turkey between 1900 and 2013. The data strongly supports that the NTA distribution represents the main tool for handling disaster data. The findings indicate that approximately three earthquakes, fifteen landslides, five floods, six rock falls, six avalanches, and twenty nine forest fires are expected in a year. The results from this model suggest that the probability of the total number of casualties is the highest for the earthquakes and the lowest for the rock falls. This study also finds that the expected number of natural disasters approximately equals to 64 per year and inter-event time between two successive earthquakes is approximately four months. The inter-event time for the natural disasters is approximately six days in Turkey.
关键词：Natural hazards; earthquake; landslide; avalanche; flood; forest fire; rock fall; recurrence time; Neyman type A distribution.
