摘要：In any sport competition, there is a strong interest in knowingwhich team shall be the champion at the end of the championship. Besidesthis, the end result of a match, the chance of a team to be quali ed fora speci c tournament, the chance of being relegated, the best attack, thebest defense, among others, are also subject of interest. In this paper wepresent a simple method with good predictive quality, easy implementation,low computational e ort, which allows the calculation of all the interestingquantities above. Following Lee (1997), we estimate the average goals scoredby each team by assuming that the number of goals scored by a team ina match follows a univariate Poisson distribution but we consider linearmodels that express the sum and the di erence of goals scored in terms of ve covariates: the goal average in a match, the home-team advantage, theteam's o ensive power, the opponent team's defensive power and a crisisindicator. The methodology is applied to the 2008-2009 English PremierLeague.
关键词：Linear Model; Premier Football League; Simulation; Poisson;Distribution.
