摘要：In this study, we investigated the properties and the macroeconomic performance of the nonlinearity of the Inflation Rate Set in Tunisia. We developed an inference asymptotic theory for an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root. We proposed two types of tests namely asymptotic and bootstrap-based. These tests as well as the distribution theory allow a joint consideration of nonlinear thresholds and non-stationary unit roots. Our empirical results reveal a strong evidence of a threshold effect. This makes clear the possibility of non stationary and nonlinear of the Monthly Inflation Rate in Tunisia for the 1994.01-2011.06 period. While the Perron test found a unit root, our TAR unit root tests are arguably significant. Then, the evidence is quite strong that the inflation rate is not a unit root process.
关键词：TAR models; Thresholds; nonlinear time series; nonstationary; Inflation Rate. .
