期刊名称：Journal of Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics
印刷版ISSN：1690-4532
电子版ISSN：1690-4524
出版年度：2017
卷号：15
期号：1
页码：67-76
出版社：International Institute of Informatics and Cybernetics
摘要：The prediction models for the United States Medical LicensureExamination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances wereconstructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approachvia linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build therobust simulation models to accurately identify the mostimportant predictors and yield the valid range estimations of theSteps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modelingapproach was deemed an effective way in predicting studentperformances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivityanalysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models wasused to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected bychanges in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME)Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the studyresults indicated that the Medical College Admission Test(MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score weresignificant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence,institutions could screen qualified student applicants forinterviews and document the effectiveness of basic scienceeducation program based on the simulation results.
