摘要：Vine is highly sensitive to climate changes, particularly temperature changes, which can be
reflected in the quality of yield. We obtained meteorological data from weather station Llíria in viticultural site
Valencia DO in Spain from the period 1961-2016 and elaborated the future modelling scenario Representative
Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 for the period 1985-2100 within the Coupled Model
Intercomparison, Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for daily temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration. The
irrigation requirements (IR) future models for grape varieties Tempranillo and Bobal were elaborated.
Temperature and evapotranspiration trends increased during observation period and are estimated to continue
rising, according to the future model. Nevertheless, precipitation trend is estimated to decrease according to the
model. The future scenarios show increase trend of temperature and evapotranspiration and decrease of
precipitation. Total IR for the period 1985 – 2100 is expected to increase during growing season months
according to the trendline for 16.6 mm (RCP4.5) and 40.0 mm (RCP8.5) for Tempranillo and 8.2 mm
(RCP4.5) and 30.9 mm (RCP8.5) for Bobal grape variety. The outcome of this research is important to
understand better the future climatic trends in Valencia DO and provides valuable data to face the future
climate changes.
其他摘要：Vine is highly sensitive to climate changes, particularly temperature changes, which can be reflected in the quality of yield. We obtained meteorological data from weather station Llíria in viticultural site Valencia DO in Spain from the period 1961-2016 and elaborated the future modelling scenario Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 for the period 1985-2100 within the Coupled Model Intercomparison, Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for daily temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration. The irrigation requirements (IR) future models for grape varieties Tempranillo and Bobal were elaborated. Temperature and evapotranspiration trends increased during observation period and are estimated to continue rising, according to the future model. Nevertheless, precipitation trend is estimated to decrease according to the model. The future scenarios show increase trend of temperature and evapotranspiration and decrease of precipitation. Total IR for the period 1985 – 2100 is expected to increase during growing season months according to the trendline for 16.6 mm (RCP4.5) and 40.0 mm (RCP8.5) for Tempranillo and 8.2 mm (RCP4.5) and 30.9 mm (RCP8.5) for Bobal grape variety. The outcome of this research is important to understand better the future climatic trends in Valencia DO and provides valuable data to face the future climate changes.
