期刊名称：International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
电子版ISSN：2146-4553
出版年度：2018
卷号：8
期号：5
页码：202-211
语种：English
出版社：EconJournals
摘要：The electricity price in Colombia responds to demographic, economic, climatic changes, among others, that generate uncertainty and therefore risks in the electric production. Considering that the decision-making process has a great importance in the electricity market and that the participation of generators in energy auctions is usually based on intuition and previous experience, the need to study the possible alternatives and methods that minimize the risks before deciding some important matter can be appreciate. In this article, the estimation of the behavior of electrical energy prices in Colombia at the year 2030 for different scenarios and there are propose the following scientific models: (i) Simple regression; (ii) Econometric model. As result are obtained forecasts for each model, identifying that the econometric model has the lowest margin of error compared to the historical data that considers the behavior of different variables for the forecast.
关键词：Econometric Modeling; methods of statistical simulation; forecasting; electricity price.
