BEA's 2006 research and development satellite account: preliminary estimates of R&D for 1959-2002 effect on GDP and other measures.

Okubo, Sumiye ; Robbins, Carol A. ; Moylan, Carol E. 等

THE Bureau of Economic Analysis has been working on a research and development (R&D) satellite account since 2004 to help economists gain a better understanding of R&D activity and its effect on economic growth. This article introduces the 2006 satellite account, which provides preliminary estimates of R&D investment and the impact of R&D investment on such measures as gross domestic product (GDP), investment, and saving.

The full 2006 satellite account, released in September and accessible via <www.bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2006/rdspend06.htm>, modifies the accounting conventions used in the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) in order to explore the impact of "capitalizing" R&D--that is, treating R&D spending as an investment rather than as an expense. The new account does not affect the official measure of GDP. Rather, the satellite account provides a framework to explore new methodologies and provide regularly updated estimates of R&D in preparation for future incorporation into the input-output (I-O) accounts and the NIPAs.

The R&D satellite account was developed in partnership with the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Federal agency that is responsible for producing R&D-related statistics for the United States. NSF provided funding for the R&D satellite account project, and its staff reviewed account methodologies and results. Using R&D expenditure data from the NSF, BEA developed estimates of R&D investment, the R&D, and the resulting macroeconomic effects for 1959-2002. (1) Revised estimates are scheduled to be released in September 2007.

The 2006 account measures the direct effect of R&D investment on final demand only; it does not include spillover effects. Spillovers--the economic benefits of R&D available to entities that did not pay to create the R&D--are not included in the national accounts framework because the national accounts value assets at their market value. This treatment is consistent with the treatment of other types of spillovers in the national accounts.

The new account makes clear that treating R&D as an investment would have a substantial impact on GDP and other measures. Highlights from the new satellite account include the following:

* Current-dollar investment in R&D totaled $276.5 billion in 2002.

* Recognizing R&D as investment would increase the level of current-dollar GDP by an average 21/2 percent per year in 1959-2002 (chart 1). (2) * Businesses' investment in commercial and all other types of buildings would account for just over 2 percent

of real GDP growth in 1995-2002. * R&D investment and the income flows arising from accumulated R&D capital would account for about 4 1/2 percent of real GDP growth in 1959-2002. In 1995-2002, R&D investment would account for about 6 1/2 percent of growth.

* R&D investment would increase current-dollar gross private domestic investment in 2002 more than 11 percent, or $178 billion. The national saving rate in 2002 would be 16 percent, instead of 14 percent.

* Business investment in R&D as a percentage of GDP surpassed government investment as a percentage of GDP in 1981.

* Business investment accounted for just under 2 percent of current-dollar GDP in 2000, compared with just over 1 percent in 1960.

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The release of the satellite account in September marks another step in BEA's efforts to adapt its measures of economic activity to structural changes in the economy (see the box "Previous NIPA Improvements Related to R&D"), particularly in the field of intangible assets. BEA plans several additional enhancements to the R&D satellite account in the near future: An improved treatment of the international aspects of R&D, improved measures of prices for R&D, and new industry-based estimates of R&D. Current plans, subject to available funding, call for the incorporation of R&D into the I-O accounts in 2012 and into the NIPAs in 2013.

The 2006 satellite account builds on the earlier work at BEA. (3) In 1994, BEA introduced the elements needed to translate R&D expenditures into investment, deflate investment, and develop R&D stock measures. In 2005, BEA went a step further and presented the general structure of the account along with rough estimates of the impact on GDP, gross domestic income (GDI), and national saving. The 2006 satellite account extends these previous efforts by exploring alternative scenarios that take into account the notable characteristics of R&D activity and by developing a more complete national accounts framework to estimate R&D activity.

In addition, BEA now recognizes the funder of R&D as the owner of R&D, that is, the entity that benefits from the activity; earlier versions focused on the performer of R&D. The change stems from the need to assign income flows to the economic sectors included in the national economic accounts. Assigning ownership from performer data is difficult because the performer is not necessarily the owner. Often, the original recipient of R&D funds may subcontract to others.

Measuring R&D as investment

Measuring the output of R&D activity presents well-known estimation challenges. Foremost among these challenges is the lack of market transactions for most R&D. Like other types of intangible investment, R&D investment is mainly created by firms and institutions for internal use; it is rarely sold on the open market. Therefore, for most of the R&D conducted in the United States, there is neither an observable market price nor a product that can be used to measure output. (4)

BEA's standard approach to estimating nonmarket activity--such as the output of government and nonprofit entities as well as goods that businesses create for their own use--is to measure the activity as the sum of input costs. In the case of R&D, this approach is made possible by detailed, 50-year time-series data collected by the NSF. However, the input-cost approach raises a critical issue: How to adjust this proxy measure of R&D output to account for changing prices? One of the methods conventionally used for nonmarket output is to apply input price indexes to these costs, thereby producing a measure of real output. Unfortunately, this approach seems ill-suited for measuring R&D: Deflation using input prices assumes that the output prices are changing at exactly the same rate as input costs, which precludes productivity gains that stem from R&D. In other words, this approach cannot account for multifactor productivity growth.

As a result, an input-price method would not reflect the dynamism of R&D activity. Products that embody a high level of R&D, such as computers and communication equipment, tend to have relatively short life cycles, paced by the rapid introduction of new, R&D-driven technologies. This relatively fast obsolescence means that the time period during which the costs of R&D must be recovered is short. In order to earn high rates of return, companies in R&D-intensive industries must raise the productivity of new products by lowering costs and increasing sales.

To account for these market dynamics, the 2006 R&D satellite account provides estimates for four R&D scenarios--scenarios A, B, C, and D. The scenarios differ in their assumptions in these areas: Price indexes, depreciation, rates of return to businesses, and rates of return to government and nonprofit institutions serving households.

The rest of this article is organized as follows:

* The first section presents the new estimates of R&D investment activity and details the impact of R&D on such measures as real GDR It introduces the four scenarios through which R&D is measured.

* The second section presents future initiatives to enhance the R&D satellite account.

* The third section discusses key conceptual and methodological issues that underlie the account.

This article also includes a list of references and tables of estimates from the 2006 R&D satellite account.

R&D and the Economy

This section discusses the current treatment of R&D in the NIPAs; new estimates of current-dollar R&D activity, the treatment of R&D in the 2006 satellite account, and the effect of R&D on key economic measures under the four scenarios.

Current treatment of R&D in BEA's accounts

Domestic R&D expenditures are currently only partly identifiable in BEA's accounts.

In the I-O accounts, the identifiable portion is based on data from the Census Bureau on establishments classified in the scientific research and development services industry. In BEA's GDP-by-industry accounts, estimates for the value added of this industry are included in a broader sector: Miscellaneous professional, scientific, and technical services. While Federal Government purchases of R&D are included in the I-O accounts, they are not separately identified.

In the NIPAs, Federal purchases of R&D are treated as government consumption, and spending on R&D by foundations and nonprofit institutions serving households are included in personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending). In addition, BEA's estimates of international trade in services provide measures of exports and imports of R&D services. BEA separately estimates royalties and licensing fees, which include transactions for the use of R&D protected by patents, considered payments for intermediate inputs.

Estimates of current-dollar R&D

To provide a more complete picture of R&D activity, the satellite account provides new R&D investment estimates derived from data from NSF (table A). The preliminary estimates shows that current-dollar investment in R&D totaled $276.5 billion in 2002, accounting for 2.6 percent of GDP (adjusted to include R&D as investment). Historically, the ratio of current-dollar R&D investment to current-dollar GDP rose in the mid-1960s, as the U.S. invested more in space-related technologies, and fell in the 1970s. The ratio trended upward again the early 1980s. Since 1990, the ratio has averaged 2.5 percent (chart 1).

Business and government. During the early era of space exploration in the mid-1960s, the R&D investment by government (Federal, state, and local governments) amounted to more than 2 percent of current-dollar GDP. Since 1960, Government R&D as a percentage of GDP has declined steadily since the 1960s, falling to a 0.8 percent of GDP in 2000. In that year, business-sector R&D investment equaled 1.8 percent of GDP.

Government's contribution to total R&D investment was also at its highest in the middle of the 1960s, when it funded almost three-quarters of all R&D investment (chart 2). By 1981, business funded more investment in R&D than government.

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Funders and performers. The satellite account shows R&D activity by both funders and performers (table B). In the satellite account, government includes public universities and colleges, and nonprofit institutions serving households includes private universities and colleges. The 2006 satellite account shows the marked decline in government-funded R&D, compared with business- and nonprofit-funded R&D in 1960-2002; government-funded R&D accounted for 35.5 percent of total R&D in 2002, compared with 57 percent in 1960. In contrast, the performer-based share of total R&D investment by business and government has not changed nearly as much.

Investment and saving. R&D investment has had a progressively greater impact on gross private domestic investment since 1960. In 2002, domestic investment would have been 11.3 percent higher if R&D were included, compared with 9.8 percent in 1990 and 7.5 percent in 1960 (table C). The national saving rate would have been 2.1 percentage points higher in 2002.

Proposed treatment to capitalize R&D investment

Treating R&D as an investment, rather than as an expense, in the calculation of GDP and other accounts would require significant changes to current NIPA concepts and methodologies (table D). The estimated impact is largest in the business sector, but nonprofit institutions serving households and general government are also affected.

Business sector. Reclassifying business R&D expenditures as investment would lead to an increase in GDP equal to the value of the R&D expenditures. Currently, business expenditures on R&D are considered intermediate input expenditures, which are not included in GDP. The recognition of R&D as investment also affects business income and private consumption of fixed capital (CFC), both components of gross domestic income (GDI). Because R&D would no longer be considered an expense, gross business income (proprietors' income and corporate profits) would increase by the elimination of the deduction for R&D expenditures.

Nonprofit institutions serving households and general government. In these two sectors, R&D expenditures would be reclassified from consumption expenditures to investment; because consumption expenditures are already part of GDP, this shift alone would not change the measure of GDP. However, recognizing these expenditures as investment would increase the measure of consumption by nonprofit institutions and general government by an amount equal to the value of the CFC (depreciation) of the R&D. Thus, GDP and GDI would increase correspondingly. This treatment is consistent with the current NIPA treatment of government and nonprofit investment in which the CFC of those assets serves as a partial measure of the services they provide. The featured estimates for this account also include a net return to government and nonprofit R&D capital in addition to CFC. Therefore, GDP would rise by an amount equal to the value of CFC plus the net return for government and nonprofit R&D investment.

The four scenarios

To further explore the effect of R&D activity on the economy, BEA constructed four R&D scenarios--scenarios A, B, C, and D. Each scenario adopts the sector-specific methodological changes outlined above, but each also attempts to capture some specific characteristics of R&D activity, such as relatively high productivity, rapid depreciation, and high rates of return.

The scenarios differ in regard to assumptions in four areas: Price indexes, depreciation, rates of return to businesses, and rates of return to government and nonprofit institutions (table E).

Price indexes. R&D investment is difficult to measure largely because most R&D is not bought and sold in markets. Typically, the companies that conduct the R&D are also the companies that use the R&D to produce new and/or better goods and services. Conceptually, the value of R&D to a company is equal to the discounted present value of the future benefits that the company derives from the R&D.

However, this value is embedded in the value of all the goods and services the company sells, and there is no direct measure of either the contribution of R&D to those sales or the market price underlying R&D assets. Companies can normally report what they spent on wages, salaries, contractors, and other costs of conducting R&D but not the market price of R&D. For computers, communications equipment, and other assets that are bought and sold in final goods markets, companies know the market price of the asset and its share of sales as well as the share of profits that came from the difference between the sales price and the cost of producing such assets. For these assets, it is straightforward to estimate real (inflation-adjusted) values by simply dividing the current-dollar value of these assets by a price index based on their sales.

However, for R&D, the value of the assets and their contribution to sales are indistinguishably bundled with those of the companies' overall assets. Therefore, the only available current-dollar value is the cost of their production. The issue then becomes how to deflate this current-dollar value to produce an estimate of real investment. Each scenario embodies a different deflations method:

* Scenario A. This scenario is perhaps the most straightforward way to estimate real R&D. It bases the measure of current-dollar R&D output on input costs and then deflates this output measure with the price index created from information on the cost components for R&D. This method is currently used by BEA to measure the value of real investment that companies create for their own use. The obvious drawback to this approach is that it necessarily implies zero productivity growth because real output, by definition, grows at the same rate as real inputs. Thus, this approach seems particularly inappropriate for measuring a dynamic sector like R&D.

* Scenario B. This scenario assumes that the value of real R&D output is higher than the value of real R&D inputs by the amount of productivity growth recorded in higher productivity industries. The price index used to calculate real output is calculated by subtracting average multifactor productivity (MFP) growth for a group of manufacturing industries with the highest MFP growth from the increase in the price indexes used in scenario A. This adjustment provides a cost-based index that reflects the high productivity growth of R&D.

* Scenario C. This scenario assumes that the value of real R&D output is proportional to the output prices of the most productive services industries.

RELATED ARTICLE: Previous NIPA improvements related to R&D.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) continues to update the U.S. economic accounts to better reflect the evolving economy, with a focus on high-technology-oriented goods and services. This box summarizes two previous important improvements.

Hedonic indexes

In the mid-1980s, BEA introduced hedonic, or quality-adjusted, price indexes for computers and peripherals into the national income and product accounts (NIPAs). Since then, it has gradually introduced quality-adjusted indexes for other goods, including semiconductors and digital telephone equipment. Currently, approximately 20 percent of real gross domestic product (GDP) is deflated using quality-adjusted price indexes that rely at least partly on hedonic methods. Use of such methods has improved the estimates of real GDP and the value of real output of services industries that use information technology (IT).

Intangibles

BEA has long recognized that so-called intangible assets play a significant role in the economy. Like tangible assets, intangible assets are created from production processes and tend to be used in other processes of production. Examples include R&D, software, business processes, and business-specific training.

In 1999, BEA capitalized spending on computer software, treating it as investment in its calculation of GDP. BEA's proposed treatment of R&D investment, outlined in this article, largely mirrors BEA's current treatment of software. The inclusion of computer software as an investment has helped economists better explain the resurgence in economic growth in the last decade. Between 1995 and 2002, software's average contribution to the growth in real GDP was 5.0 percent. Between 1973 and 1994, its average contribution was 2.7 percent.

These innovations have provided the basis for better measures of IT-related industries and their contributions to economic growth. Indeed, Triplett and Bosworth have used improved BEA data on real industry output (GDP by industry) to show that services-producing industries "have emerged as the dominant engines of U.S. economic growth" over the past decade (Triplett and Bosworth 2004).

Improved measures of IT have also been useful to researchers analyzing multifactor productivity--the unexplained portion of economic growth that remains after the contributions of labor, capital, and intermediate inputs have been measured. Improvements in both concepts and measurement have helped to both lower the unexplained portion of economic growth and to explain the contributions of information technology to the increase in growth and multifactor productivity in the last decade.

Because intangible assets are increasingly important components of the knowledge economy, BEA has begun preliminary research on prototype accounts for health care, human capital, and education.

While services industries traditionally have lower productivity growth and higher inflation than the industries in the goods sector, key industries have a good record of producing high-productivity, declining relative prices and ever-increasing real output per unit of input. In this scenario, real R&D output is estimated using a weighted average of BEA's GDP-by-industry value-added price indexes of these high-productivity services industries: Air transportation, broadcasting and telecommunications, securities and commodity brokers, and information-processing and data-processing services. (5)

* Scenario D. This scenario assumes that the value of real R&D output is proportional to the output prices of R&D-intensive products. The prices of such products may be the best proxies for the value of the R&D embodied in these products. This index is calculated from price indexes for the largest R&D-performing manufacturing industries. Based on NSF industry performer data, these industries are chemicals, computer and electronic products, machinery, and aerospace and defense.

Depreciation. R&D capital does not wear out the way tangible goods do, but it clearly loses value over time because of obsolescence. It loses value as new innovations appear and as earlier R&D becomes relatively less effective in the production process. An additional loss could stem from the gradual leakage of information to competitors and the expiration of intellectual property protection.

For tangible assets, BEA typically uses empirical studies of markets for used assets to determine depreciation rates. This type of information is not available for R&D, but economists have estimated the range of average annual depreciation rates for business R&D to be between 12 and 25 percent. (6) For government and public universities and colleges, the depreciation rate is likely to be lower because the R&D is often concentrated in basic research, which is likely to obsolesce more slowly.

The assumed depreciation rate for scenario A, the most straightforward scenario, is 15 percent a year. Scenarios B, C, and D incorporate an alternative method that proxies the effect of a more rapid pace of technological change in recent years and thus an accelerating rate of depreciation. This faster rate of obsolescence is consistent with the work of Caballero and Jaffe (1993), whose work with patents found an accelerating rate of obsolescence in the 1990s, compared with earlier decades. Scenarios B, C, and D assume a depreciation rate before 1987 that is equal to the depreciation rate of overall investment in equipment and software. After 1987, the rate is assumed to be equal to the depreciation rate for information-processing equipment and software. (7) The resulting depreciation series starts at about 16 percent in 1959 and reaches about 23 percent in 2002.

Business rates of return. Studies have shown a fairly wide range of estimates of the rate of return for R&D (table F). Despite the wide range, the private rates of return are high relative to other investments. The total returns, which include spillovers, are higher still--about twice the corresponding private returns to the originators of the R&D. Many of these studies were performed in the late 1970s and 1980s. More recently, higher returns have been necessary to offset the increasing rates of technical obsolescence, faster depreciation, volatility, and risk that have occurred for products that embody R&D, such as computers, software, and other information-communications-technology products.

Scenario A, the most straightforward of the scenarios, assumes an average rate of return to business R&D investment of 11 percent in 1959-2002, the same return earned by other private fixed assets. However, scenarios B, C, and D assume a higher average net rate of return, 15 percent.

Returns to government and nonprofit institutions. The current NIPA treatment does not include any net returns to fixed assets owned by governments and nonprofit institutions serving households. It treats CFC (depreciation) of those assets as a partial measure of the services they provide; thus, the net return is zero by construction.

Scenario A adopts the current treatment; it does not account for any net returns to R&D investment by governments and nonprofit institutions serving households. However, scenarios B, C, and D assume a net return to R&D spending by government and nonprofit institutions equal to the average real rate on 10-year Treasury securities, adjusted to reflect a higher return to R&D relative to other types of investments. The additional returns in scenarios B, C, and D were deflated with a price index created for scenario B, the high-productivity services-sector industries.

Impact of R&D on key NIPA measures

BEA reports the estimates based on scenario D as the preliminary estimates for the 2006 R&D satellite account. These estimates approximate a midrange of the three high-productivity options. Estimates based on scenario D for real GDP, current-dollar GDP, real GDI, and the saving rate are presented in tables 1.1-1.4.

Scenario comparison

For analytical purposes, a look at each scenario's estimates is instructive, especially estimates of contributions to real GDP and real GDP growth.

Scenario A, which assumes no productivity growth, produces the smallest impact on GDP of the alternatives tested; in 1959-2002, R&D boosted current-dollar GDP by an annual average 2.3 percent (table G).

The average contribution to real GDP growth was 2.2 percent (table H).

In scenarios B, C, and D--the high-productivity-growth scenarios--the average increase in the level of current-dollar GDP was 2.6 percent each. Scenarios B, C, and D also produce a relatively tight range of contributions to the growth in real GDP (table H). The largest contribution to growth (4.9 percent) in 1959-2002 comes from scenario B, which uses the high-MFP index. In scenario C, which uses the composite price index from the high-productivity services industries, the contribution in 1959-2002 averages 4.3 percent, and the contribution in 1995-2002 is 6.3 percent. Scenario D, which uses a composite price index for R&D performing industries, yields a similar overall contribution, 4.6 percent, and a similar contribution in 1995-2002, 6.7 percent.

Step-by-step comparisons

To get a clearer picture of the step-by-step impact of specific assumptions in each scenario, table I provides a decomposition of R&D's contribution to average real GDP growth for each scenario for 1995-2002 and 1959-2002. By looking down the columns and across the rows, the cumulative impact of each assumption can be seen.

Table I shows the contribution of R&D to real GDP growth for scenario A in two cases: (1) When the depreciation rate is assumed to be 15 percent and (2) when the depreciation rate is accelerated. Accelerating the depreciation rate results in a higher contribution to the average contribution to GDP growth in 1959-2002 and 1995-2002.

Scenarios B, C, and D also assume an accelerated depreciation rate; however, they include other changed assumptions as well: (1) Different output price indexes for deflation purposes and (2) a return for government and nonprofit institution capital services. The return for capital services includes both CFC and a net return, which are both deflated with the high-productivity services industries price index.

The average contributions for scenarios B, C, and D, given all assumptions, are shown in table I in the far right columns.

For scenario D, the featured estimates of the average R&D-related contributions to the average real GDP growth rate combine (1) the price-index impact that raises the contribution of R&D from 2.4 percent (scenario A) to 4.1 percent and (2) the impact of the net return component of capital services that raises the estimate from 4.1 percent to 4.6 percent in 1959-2002. Thus, the total increase in the contribution of R&D, 2.2 percentage points, is largely due to the selection of the output price index.

Future Initiatives

In the near future, BEA intends to explore a variety of issues related to R&D investment. These issues include international flows of R&D transactions, improved output measures, improved input deflators, the treatment of R&D spillovers, the ownership of R&D assets, and improved estimates of capital services for R&D.

International flows of R&D transactions

There are two dimensions of international transactions for R&D and a related category of payments for the use of R&D: International trade in research, development, and testing services; business funding of foreign-performed R&D; and royalties and licensing fees for the use of industrial processes.

BEA's R&D satellite account presents estimates of the stock of R&D located in the United States, regardless of the residence of the owner. The satellite account treats all domestically performed business R&D as producing U.S. assets and excludes R&D performed abroad by foreign affiliates of U.S. companies. This treatment implicitly assumes that the private benefits of R&D are obtained in the country where the R&D is performed. The stock estimates presented in this article are not adjusted for R&D investment by U.S. and foreign multinational companies or the exports and imports of research, development, and testing services. Adjustment for exports and imports of research, development, and testing services is planned for the 2007 R&D satellite account. Including R&D investment by multinationals requires data not currently available and remains a longer-term project.

Improved output measures, input deflators

In 2007, BEA plans to refine its methodology for measuring real R&D output. In particular, BEA intends to develop a methodology for weighting the relative importance of high R&D-performing industries. BEA also plans to develop improved R&D price deflators for the largest input cost: Compensation of R&D personnel in business. (These price deflators were used in scenario A.)

Over the longer term, a framework for including R&D in the U.S. industry accounts needs to be constructed. The goal is to develop a more detailed look at the composition of R&D costs across industries and to develop improved R&D deflators for compensation and the other input costs, with an emphasis on certain key industries such as computer manufacturing, electronic products, and pharmaceuticals. For example, the makeup of R&D personnel (scientists, engineers, technicians, and administrative support) or the nature of R&D physical capital investment and its depreciation may vary significantly across industries. The composition of an industry's R&D funding may also be used to develop improved R&D deflators, especially for those industries that have a high portion of their R&D funded by the Federal Government.

Treatment of R&D spillovers

Spillovers (externalities) exist when the social benefit (or cost) of an economic activity exceeds the private benefit (or cost). These spillovers are not currently included within the existing framework of the U.S. national accounts or the System of National Accounts (SNA), the internationally accepted national-accounts guidelines issued by the United Nations.

However, a satellite account--because it allows for the adjustment of national accounting conventions without changing the core accounts--can provide a means of exploring the effects of spillovers. Any potential experimental estimates of R&D spillovers will be included in the R&D satellite account--not the core GDP accounts.

Explicit identification of spillovers have not been included in the national accounting framework, because those accounts value assets at their private value, that is, the value of the asset to the owner. (8) The effects of spillovers are implicitly reflected in those market prices, but the national accounts do not attempt to estimate, for example, what share of economic growth is determined by the market value of computers. It does not include the efficiencies and value added (over and above the price paid for the computers) that accrue to the financial and other industries that use the computers. These spillovers form part of the unexplained multifactor residual in economic growth. Nonetheless, national economic accounting agencies, including BEA, recognize the interest in the value of R&D to society as a whole.

Although no attempt has been made to estimate the total impact of R&D, including spillovers, on economic growth, it is possible to infer the relative impact using studies of rates of return. If, as earlier studies have suggested, spillovers to other industries (and other firms in the same industry) are at least as large as the returns to the original investor, then R&D might account for a fifth of the 33 percent of economic growth between 1995 and 2002 that cannot be accounted for by conventional inputs and is described as multifactor or total factor productivity.

BEA's role in growth accounting continues to be to provide the data that other economists use to analyze the sources of economic growth. BEA intends to continue to explore the issue within the satellite account framework.

Ownership of R&D assets

The estimates presented in this satellite account assume that the funder of R&D owns the R&D. BEA plans to develop guidelines that can be applied to the existing survey data and that would use available information about the assignment of intellectual property rights--who has the right to patent and collect royalties--to refine its funder-based estimates of ownership of R&D. BEA also intends to refine the definition of R&D as an asset.

In the longer term, BEA will work with its data providers to align survey questions to the economic concepts necessary to identify ownership and location of use. Although some R&D produced by governments, nonprofits, and academic institutions may not be considered an economic asset in the final analysis, it is likely to have a measurable impact on economic activity; it is important that this type of R&D be reported separately.

Estimates of capital services for R&D

Capital services estimates would enhance the usefulness of the R&D capital stocks for productivity analysis purposes, but preliminary capital services estimates would likely be somewhat speculative because of the limited availability of price data for the use of R&D. Given the efforts to harmonize BEA statistics with those of the productivity program of BLS, developing capital services estimates for R&D is a high priority.

Other long-term improvements

R&D stocks by type. Estimating R&D stocks by basic research, applied research, and development of new products and processes would enhance the usefulness of the R&D satellite account. If BEA were able to create consistent time series of these stocks, an improved set of estimates could include depreciation rates that differ by type of R&D asset. BEA is exploring the issue.

Enhanced source data, Several long-term improvements to the R&D satellite accounts require improved survey data. For example, the estimates of CFC used in the production of R&D would be greatly improved by survey data on expenditures for structures, equipment, and software used in the production of R&D. Similarly, better data on the nature of the transaction between the funder and the performer of R&D would improve the assignment of R&D to sectors and the separation of domestic R&D investment from foreign R&D investment.

Alignment of data, As BEA considers incorporating R&D as investment in the NIPAs, an immediate challenge will be the alignment of NSF data and data from other sources with the industry classification systems used for enterprise and establishment data at BEA. BEA is currently working on developing an industry framework for R&D that will lead to industry-based estimates for R&D.

Timing. Currently, R&D surveys are conducted annually or less frequently, and the publication lag is usually between 1 and 2 years. For the NIPAs, quarterly estimates with a lag of 1 month after the end of the quarter are required.

Conceptual and Methodological Issues

For a more detailed discussion of the methodology, see "R&D Satellite Account: Preliminary Estimates" on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2006/rdreport06.pdf>. Various highlights are discussed in this section.

Changes from previous versions

The methodologies used for the 2006 satellite account extend the methodologies used in the R&D estimates published in 1994 and the prototype account published in 2005. The 2006 satellite account includes R&D capital stocks and places R&D investment flows and the income it generates within the accounts for GDP and the NIPA sectors.

Important methodological changes to real estimates over the period include the following:

* Chain-type price measures of real output and prices have been implemented, eliminating the overstatement of real R&D growth for periods after the base year and the understatement of real R&D growth for periods before the base year.

* For the input price index approach (scenario A), a new methodology for deflating business R&D has been developed; it uses price measures based on unpublished BEA industry accounts data from the scientific research and development services industry (NAICS 5417) instead of price measures for each industry. Also, a new methodology for deflating academic R&D has been developed; it uses an academic R&D price index developed by the National Center for Education Statistics. (9)

* Real R&D investment by source of funding is now presented.

Important changes to the capital stock measures include the following:

* A new measure of R&D capital stocks has been developed; it is based on the funder of the R&D that is performed, and it better approximates the ownership assumed for R&D capital.

* A geometric rate of depreciation is now used; it replaces the depreciation pattern based on a straight-line perpetual inventory method.

Scope of R&D investment

To define the scope of R&D investment, BEA evaluated two international standards: The United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Frascati Manual. BEA selected the Frascati definition of R&D as currently implemented by NSF in its R&D surveys mainly because BEA relies on NSF source data. In addition, the Frascati definition is closely related to the new proposed international standard, making it easier to compare BEA's estimates with other countries' estimates. The quality that distinguishes the Frascati definition from the SNA definition is the requirement that R&D include "an appreciable element of novelty and the resolution of scientific and/or technical uncertainty" (OECD 2002). Innovative activity that does not involve novelty or technological uncertainty is not considered R&D in this definition.

Funders and performers

The aggregated investment measures for R&D are presented in the tables by major performer and major funder. The stocks of R&D are presented by funders.

The data are disaggregated into two major institutional categories: Private and government ("public") organizations. Several subcategories are also included. Private organizations consist of businesses; private universities and colleges; private hospitals, charitable foundations, and other nonprofit institutions serving households; and most Federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs). (10) Government organizations consist of the Federal Government, state and local governments excluding universities and colleges, public universities and colleges, and FFRDCs administered by state and local governments, primarily public universities and colleges.

All estimates of current-dollar R&D investment are prepared by first compiling data available from the various NSF surveys and then by adjusting these data to be statistically and conceptually consistent with BEA definitions in the NIPAs. Performer-based estimates of real R&D expenditures are derived by deflating the most detailed current-dollar expenditures by appropriate price indexes. BEA develops real R&D capital stocks by treating the R&D expenditures as investment and aggregating them based on methodologies that BEA uses for other types of fixed assets.

Acknowledgments

Sumiye Okubo, Associate Director for Industry Accounts, and Carol A. Robbins, directed the preliminary R&D satellite account project. Carol E. Moylan, Chief of the National Income and Wealth Division, supervised the preparation of the estimates. Brian K. Sliker prepared the macroeconomic estimates.

John W. Drewry, Lisa S. Mataloni, Jose Rodriguez-Solis, Andrew G. Schmidt, and Laura I. Schultz prepared data analysis and other review materials. David B. Wasshausen, Erich H. Strassner, and Gabriel W. Medeiros provided additional technical assistance with the estimates. Claudia M. Molinar provided research assistance.

J. Steven Landefeld, Rosemary D. Marcuss, Dennis J. Fixler, Ralph H. Kozlow, Brent R. Moulton, Bruce T. Grimm, Charles Ian Mead, and William J. Zeile provided valuable comments throughout the project. Ann M. Lawson provided comments on the tables and drafts. Lawrence P. McNeil and Yvon Pho contributed to the early stages of the project. John E. Jankowski, Director, R&D Statistics Program, and Francisco A. Moris of the National Science Foundation contributed guidance and support throughout the project, prepared supplementary data and analysis, and provided a detailed methodological and data review of the satellite account. R&D data and discussion and consultation were provided by the members of the Division of Science Resources Statistics (SRS) staff at the National Science Foundation (NSF). Funding for this project was provided by NSF/SRS.

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Tables 1.1 through 4.2 follow.

(1.) The NSF's Division of Science Resources Statistics annually publishes National Patterns of Research and Development Resources, which includes data based primarily on two annual NSF surveys: The Survey of Industrial R&D (SIRD or RD-1) and the Survey of Research and Development Expenditures at Universities and Colleges. Two additional annual surveys provide information on outlays and obligations by the Federal Government for R&D: The Survey of Federal Funds for R&D and the Survey of Federal Science and Engineering Support to Universities, Colleges, and Nonprofit Institutions. The biennial Scientific and Engineering Research Facilities Survey provides information on construction plans and capital spending.

(2.) The results reported in the conclusions of this report are based on estimates that value real (inflation-adjusted) R&D at prices of products produced by R&D-intensive industries.

(3.) See Carson, Grimm, and Moylan (1994). See also Fraumeni and Okubo (2005).

(4.) Census Bureau data for the R&D services industries provide estimates of market R&D, but this R&D is a relatively small share of total domestic R&D activity.

(5.) These indexes were used instead of producer price indexes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because, in most cases, the timespan for industry coverage by BLS is not long enough to enable the use of BLS producer price indexes as deflators. For example, the BLS producer price index for broadcast and telecom equipment--an industry that appears in the top five productive services index--is only available for 1991 forward. The R&D work requires an index that covers 1959 forward.

(6.) Pakes and Schankerman (1984) found the average annual decay rate of R&D to be 25 percent; Nadiri and Prucha (1996) estimated the annual depreciation rate of industrial R&D capital stock to be 12 percent. In 1996, Lev and Sougiannis estimated decay rates of R&D in six industries, finding a range of 12 to 20 percent and an average depreciation rate of 15 percent. Most recently, Bernstein and Mamuneaus (2004) calculated a 25-percent depreciation rate for the manufacturing sector.

(7.) Table I compares this faster depreciation rate to the 15-percent depreciation rate used in scenario A.

(8.) Spillovers are not included in the value of investment in the NIPAs. However, their effects on production are captured in GDP.

(9.) This series ends in 1995; BEA extrapolates this academic R&D price index with NIPA personal consumption expenditures for education and research in 1996-2002 as the indicator.

(10.) FFRDCs are R&D organizations financed almost entirely by the Federal Government. They are shown separately and grouped with the entities that administer them in the performer-based presentation of investment (table 4.1). Grouping FFRDCs in the performing sector that administers them is consistent with the NIPAs. However, NSF reports that all FFRDC activities are more similar to Federal Government laboratories and classifies them as such. Since these institutions are by definition Federally funded, they are included with the government funded investments and stocks of R&D. Table A. NSF Survey Data on Expenditures and Methods Used for Current-dollar R&D Investment Steps Method Impact on investment 1 Align the survey data on Add expenditures for R&D Increases expenditures for labor, in social sciences and material, and supplies the humanities. with Frascati-defined Subtract expenditures Decreases R&D for commercialization 2 Adjust the survey data Convert data from a Increases or for consistency with the fiscal year to a decreases NIPAs calendar year. Subtract expenditures Decreases for foreign performers 3 Adjust the data for the Subtract capital Decreases double-counting of expenditures for capital purchase of structures, equipment, and software 4 Adjust the data to move Add the consumption of Increases from expenditures to the fixed capital on Increases full value of investment structures, equipment, and software Add other taxes on production less production-related subsidies 5 Adjust the data for Add imported R&D to Increases imports of R&D domestic investment 6 Adjust the data for Subtract exported R&D Decreases exports of R&D from domestic investment NIPAs National income and product accounts NSF National Science Foundation Table B. Selected Summary Measures of R&D [Percent based on current-dollar measures] 1960 1965 1970 1975 Funder-based R&D investment as a percent of adjusted GDP Business 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 Government 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.2 Nonprofit institutions serving 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 households Funder-based R&D investment as a percent of total R&D Business 42.0 25.4 38.9 42.4 Government 57.0 73.3 59.6 56.0 Nonprofit institutions serving households 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 Performer-based R&D investment as a percent of total R&D Business 76.8 70.0 68.8 67.6 Government 17.2 21.4 22.3 23.8 Nonprofit institutions serving households 6.0 8.7 8.8 8.6 1980 1985 1990 1995 Funder-based R&D investment as a percent of adjusted GDP Business 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 Government 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 Nonprofit institutions serving households 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Funder-based R&D investment as a percent of total R&D Business 48.4 55.1 52.5 56.3 Government 49.9 43.2 45.2 41.1 Nonprofit institutions serving households 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.5 Performer-based R&D investment as a percent of total R&D Business 69.9 73.6 71.2 71.4 Government 20.8 18.4 19.3 18.5 Nonprofit institutions serving households 9.3 8.0 9.5 10.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 Funder-based R&D investment as a percent of adjusted GDP Business 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 Government 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 Nonprofit institutions serving 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 households Funder-based R&D investment as a percent of total R&D Business 61.8 64.2 66.7 65.1 Government 35.7 33.4 30.8 32.4 Nonprofit institutions serving households 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 Performer-based R&D investment as a percent of total R&D Business 74.3 74.8 75.2 73.3 Government 16.6 16.0 15.3 16.5 Nonprofit institutions serving households 9.1 9.2 9.5 10.2 2002 Funder-based R&D investment as a percent of adjusted GDP Business 1.6 Government 0.9 Nonprofit institutions serving 0.1 households Funder-based R&D investment as a percent of total R&D Business 61.8 Government 35.5 Nonprofit institutions serving households 2.7 Performer-based R&D investment as a percent of total R&D Business 70.9 Government 18.2 Nonprofit institutions serving households 11.0 Note. Calculation are based on tables 1.2, 2.1 and 3.1. Implemented using assumption defined in Scenario D. Number do not sum to 100 because of rounding. Table C. Impact on Gross Private Domestic Investment and the Saving Rate When R&D is Treated as Investment Gross private domestic investment (1) Unadjusted Adjusted Impact (billions) (billions) (percent) 1960 78.9 84.8 7.5 1970 152.4 163.1 7.1 1980 479.3 512.0 6.8 1990 861.0 945.4 9.8 2002 1,582.1 1,760.4 11.3 National saving rate (2) Unadjusted Adjusted Impact (percent) (percent) (percentage points) 1960 21.0 23.1 2.1 1970 18.6 20.5 1.9 1980 19.7 21.6 1.9 1990 16.3 18.5 2.2 2002 14.2 16.3 2.1 (1.) Applies to all scenarios. (2.) Calculated as the ratio of the sum of gross saving (from NIPA table 5.1) to the sum of gross national income expressed as a percent. Implemented using assumptions in scenario D. Table D. Effects of Treating R&D as Investment in the National Accounts Gross domestic product (GDP) Sector Treatment Adjusted Change in GDP GDP (1) in GDP Business Intermediate Reclassify to Increase consumption investment Nonprofit institutions PCE Reclassify to Increase serving households investment General government Government Reclassify to increase consumption investment Gross domestic income (GDI) Sector Adjusted Change in GDI (2) GDI Business Increase in Increase business income equal to R&D investment less CFC Increase in CFC Nonprofit institutions Increase in Increase serving households returns to R&D capital General government Increase in Increase returns to R&D capital (1.) Adjusted GDP incorporates the impact of treating R&D as investment. (2.) Adjusted GDI incorporates the impact of treating R&D as investment. NOTE. This table applies to all scenarios. CFC Consumption of fixed capital PCE Personal consumption expenditures Table E. Assumptions for the Scenarios in the R&D Satellite Account Parameter Depreciation of R&D Price index Scenario A 15 percent Input cost-component based Scenario B Before 1987: Change in Input price index private fixed investment adjusted with BLS in nonresidential multifactor productivity equipment and software to proxy high depreciation. After 1987: productivity growth Information processing in manufacturing. equipment depreciation. Scenario C Same as scenario B Composite price index based on the value added of five high-productivity service industries. Scenario D Same as scenario B Composite price index based on the value added of the four manufacturing industries that perform the most R&D. Parameter Net return to Net return to government business R&D and nonprofit R&D Scenario A Same as other None fixed assets Scenario B Average net rate of Estimated net return 15 percent based on long-term average in the 10-year real Treasury rate, plus a higher premium for R&D investment. Scenario C Same as scenario B Same as scenario B Scenario D Same as scenario B Same as scenario B BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics Table F. Summary of Estimated Gross Private and Total Rates of Return to R&D [Rate of return, percent] Source Gross Total rates private rates of return, of return including spillovers Sveikauskas 1981 7-25 50 Bernstein and Nadiri 1988 10-27 11-111 Bernstein and Nadiri 1991 15-28 20-110 Nadiri 1993 20-30 50 Mansfield et al. 1977 25 56 Goto and Suzuki 1989 26 80 Terleckyj 1974 29 48-78 Scherer 1982, 1984 29-43 64-147 None. The gross private rate of return to R&D includes depreciation. SOURCE. Table 8.1 in Fraumeni and Okubo (2005). Table G. Impact on Current-Dollar GDP When R&D is Treated as Investment 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 Average in 1959-2002 Billions of dollars GDP 526 1,039 2,790 5,803 10,470 ... GDP in scenario A 536 1,064 2,852 5,944 10,734 ... GDP in scenario B 537 1,069 2,859 5,963 10,751 ... GDP in scenario C 538 1,067 2,856 5,962 10,744 ... GDP in scenario D 538 1,069 2,857 5,962 10,747 ... Percent change in GDP Scenario A 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.3 Scenario B 2.1 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.6 Scenario C 2.2 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.6 Scenario D 2.2 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.6 NOTES. Scenario A uses an input price index. Scenario B uses a multifactor productivity-adjusted price index. Scenario C uses a high-productivity service industries price index. Scenario D uses a top four R&D performers price index. Source: Table 1.2. Table H. Average Percent of Real GDP Growth Attributed to Treating R&D as Investment Selected Periods 1959-73 1974-94 1995-2002 1959-2002 Scenario A 2.3 1.8 2.7 2.2 Scenario B 4.5 4.7 6.8 4.9 Scenario C 3.9 3.9 6.3 4.3 Scenario D 4.0 4.3 6.7 4.6 NOTES. Scenario A uses an input price index. Scenario B uses a multifactor productivity-adjusted price index. Scenario C uses a high-productivity service industries price index. Scenario D uses a top four R&D performers price index. Table I. Average Percent of Real GDP Growth Attributed to Treating R&D as Investment Decomposition, Selected Periods Depreciation 1995-2002 1959-2002 Scenario A 2.7 2.2 Scenario A with accelerated depreciation rate (1) 2.8 2.4 Scenario B 6.5 4.4 Scenario C 6.1 3.8 Scenario D 6.5 4.1 Depreciation and net return 1995-2002 1959-2002 Scenario A n.a. n.a. Scenario A with accelerated depreciation rate (1) n.a. n.a. Scenario B 6.8 4.9 Scenario C 6.3 4.3 Scenario D 6.7 4.6 n.a. Not available (1.) Scenario A with accelerated depreciation is presented as an intermediate step to scenarios B, C, and D. NOTES. Scenario A uses an input price index. Scenario B uses a muttitactor productivity-adjusted price index. Scenario C uses a high-productivity service industries price index. Scenario D uses a top four R&D performers price index. Table 1.1 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Real GDP with R&D Adjustment, 1959-2002 1959 1960 1961 1962 Millions of chained (2000) dollars GDP 2,441,284 2,501,756 2,559,971 2,715,177 GDP in scenario A 2,502,659 2,565,662 2,625,397 2,783,699 GDP in scenario B 2,420,604 2,483,638 2,542,362 2,697,952 GDP in scenario C 2,445,880 2,508,464 2,566,699 2,722,588 GDP in scenario D 2,433,272 2,495,636 2,553,750 2,709,405 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 Scenario B -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 Scenario C 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Scenario D -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1963 1964 1965 1966 Millions of chained (2000) dollars GDP 2,833,963 2,998,593 3,191,104 3,399,126 GDP in scenario A 2,904,051 3,075,350 3,273,862 3,488,592 GDP in scenario B 2,820,469 2,989,212 3,185,433 3,399,490 GDP in scenario C 2,845,305 3,014,490 3,211,437 3,425,506 GDP in scenario D 2,831,435 2,999,995 3,196,455 3,410,207 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 Scenario B -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 Scenario C 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 Scenario D -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 1967 1968 1969 1970 Millions of chained (2000) dollars GDP 3,484,631 3,652,698 3,765,397 3,771,876 GDP in scenario A 3,581,411 3,757,836 3,878,390 3,884,122 GDP in scenario B 3,490,303 3,665,215 3,786,821 3,794,770 GDP in scenario C 3,516,609 3,692,356 3,813,249 3,821,081 GDP in scenario D 3,501,384 3,677,109 3,798,474 3,806,630 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 Scenario B 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 Scenario C 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 Scenario D 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1971 1972 1973 1974 Millions of chained (2000) dollars GDP 3,898,613 4,104,966 4,341,456 4,319,565 GDP in scenario A 4,010,468 4,221,217 4,459,915 4,437,032 GDP in scenario B 3,917,134 4,122,556 4,360,936 4,343,362 GDP in scenario C 3,946,060 4,153,281 4,392,222 4,372,838 GDP in scenario D 3,929,155 4,134,402 4,372,442 4,353,132 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 Scenario B 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 Scenario C 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Scenario D 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1975 1976 1977 1978 Millions of chained (2000) dollars GDP 4,311,220 4,540,937 4,750,529 5,014,999 GDP in scenario A 4,426,896 4,658,709 4,870,337 5,138,778 GDP in scenario B 4,334,079 4,562,387 4,773,152 5,041,454 GDP in scenario C 4,364,135 4,594,468 4,805,887 5,074,523 GDP in scenario D 4,344,582 4,573,782 4,784,281 5,051,619 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 Scenario B 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Scenario C 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Scenario D 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1979 1980 1981 1982 Millions of chained (2000) dollars GDP 5,173,444 5,161,664 5,291,739 5,189,250 GDP in scenario A 5,301,841 5,293,226 5,427,980 5,331,796 GDP in scenario B 5,208,956 5,204,844 5,342,129 5,247,277 GDP in scenario C 5,241,918 5,237,989 5,376,220 5,280,726 GDP in scenario D 5,218,489 5,214,164 5,351,827 5,256,969 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 Scenario B 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 Scenario C 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 Scenario D 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1983 1984 1985 1986 Millions of chained (2000) dollars GDP 5,423,777 5,813,609 6,053,732 6,263,619 GDP in scenario A 5,574,518 5,973,632 6,221,370 6,432,311 GDP in scenario B 5,488,282 5,886,756 6,132,559 6,341,916 GDP in scenario C 5,521,588 5,919,172 6,161,986 6,367,610 GDP in scenario D 5,497,665 5,895,716 6,141,307 6,350,228 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 Scenario B 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 Scenario C 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 Scenario D 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1987 1988 1989 1990 Millions of chained (2000) dollars GDP 6,475,076 6,742,687 6,981,436 7,112,492 GDP in scenario A 6,643,641 6,913,975 7,154,928 7,294,017 GDP in scenario B 6,563,368 6,840,134 7,086,997 7,231,365 GDP in scenario C 6,586,516 6,861,026 7,106,571 7,250,125 GDP in scenario D 6,571,094 6,847,327 7,094,000 7,238,144 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 Scenario B 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 Scenario C 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 Scenario D 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1991 1992 1993 1994 Millions of chained (2000) dollars GDP 7,100,516 7,336,614 7,532,658 7,835,512 GDP in scenario A 7,290,807 7,526,957 7,719,384 8,023,550 GDP in scenario B 7,232,449 7,470,918 7,666,435 7,975,238 GDP in scenario C 7,250,352 7,487,939 7,682,131 7,989,464 GDP in scenario D 7,238,603 7,476,063 7,670,520 7,978,141 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 Scenario B 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 Scenario C 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 Scenario D 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1995 1996 1997 1998 Millions of chained (2000) dollars GDP 8,031,655 8,328,913 8,703,528 9,066,854 GDP in scenario A 8,234,469 8,542,059 8,928,417 9,303,370 GDP in scenario B 8,189,862 8,504,107 8,896,708 9,282,527 GDP in scenario C 8,201,751 8,513,219 8,901,578 9,285,008 GDP in scenario D 8,191,480 8,505,043 8,896,713 9,284,297 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 Scenario B 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 Scenario C 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Scenario D 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 1999 2000 2001 2002 Millions of chained (2000) dollars GDP 9,470,332 9,816,973 9,890,694 10,048,846 GDP in scenario A 9,721,418 10,082,823 10,151,897 10,295,813 GDP in scenario B 9,716,479 10,098,968 10,181,259 10,339,339 GDP in scenario C 9,716,956 10,097,907 10,182,661 10,342,505 GDP in scenario D 9,717,955 10,098,145 10,183,341 10,341,526 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 Scenario B 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 Scenario C 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.9 Scenario D 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.9 NOTES. Percentage change is calculated from GDP for each year. Adjusted GDP incorporates the impact of treating R&D as investment. Scenario A uses an input price index. Scenario B uses a multifactor productivity-adjusted price index. Scenario C uses a high-productivity service industries price index. Scenario D uses a top four R&D performers price index. Table 1.2 Current-Dollar Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP with R&D Adjustments, 1959-2002 1959 1960 1961 1962 Millions of dollars GDP 506,585 526,398 544,716 585,627 GDP in scenario A 515,740 536,110 554,792 596,139 GDP in scenario B 516,850 537,449 556,355 598,014 GDP in scenario C 517,230 537,756 556,726 598,258 GDP in scenario D 517,380 537,950 556,757 598,506 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Scenario B 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 Scenario C 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 Scenario D 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 1963 1964 1965 1966 Millions of dollars GDP 617,740 663,615 719,119 787,788 GDP in scenario A 629,137 676,479 733,416 804,140 GDP in scenario B 631,700 679,588 737,175 808,828 GDP in scenario C 631,904 679,700 737,228 808,430 GDP in scenario D 632,002 679,755 737,346 808,735 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 Scenario B 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 Scenario C 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Scenario D 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 1967 1968 1969 1970 Millions of dollars GDP 832,596 909,989 984,602 1,038,545 GDP in scenario A 851,070 931,319 1,008,944 1,064,390 GDP in scenario B 855,833 936,150 1,013,644 1,068,569 GDP in scenario C 855,405 935,697 1,012,453 1,067,149 GDP in scenario D 855,877 936,495 1,013,865 1,069,084 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 Scenario B 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 Scenario C 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 Scenario D 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 1971 1972 1973 1974 Millions of dollars GDP 1,127,118 1,238,292 1,382,704 1,499,978 GDP in scenario A 1,154,342 1,267,947 1,414,822 1,534,975 GDP in scenario B 1,158,291 1,271,507 1,418,686 1,539,570 GDP in scenario C 1,158,009 1,271,790 1,418,623 1,538,163 GDP in scenario D 1,159,122 1,272,341 1,419,305 1,538,923 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 Scenario B 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 Scenario C 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 Scenario D 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 1975 1976 1977 1978 Millions of dollars GDP 1,638,339 1,825,267 2,030,945 2,294,706 GDP in scenario A 1,676,081 1,866,147 2,075,218 2,343,566 GDP in scenario B 1,680,325 1,870,680 2,080,265 2,349,551 GDP in scenario C 1,679,626 1,871,028 2,080,758 2,349,029 GDP in scenario D 1,680,552 1,871,990 2,081,814 2,350,053 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 Scenario B 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 Scenario C 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 Scenario D 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 1979 1980 1981 1982 Millions of dollars GDP 2,563,326 2,789,504 3,128,435 3,255,011 GDP in scenario A 2,618,688 2,852,494 3,200,388 3,335,419 GDP in scenario B 2,625,568 2,859,291 3,208,403 3,342,222 GDP in scenario C 2,622,846 2,855,987 3,205,224 3,341,779 GDP in scenario D 2,624,773 2,857,476 3,206,014 3,342,096 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 Scenario B 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Scenario C 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 Scenario D 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 1983 1984 1985 1986 Millions of dollars GDP 3,536,665 3,933,173 4,220,262 4,462,825 GDP in scenario A 3,625,340 4,031,912 4,327,600 4,573,170 GDP in scenario B 3,632,466 4,040,445 4,337,161 4,583,164 GDP in scenario C 3,633,847 4,043,769 4,343,431 4,590,982 GDP in scenario D 3,632,755 4,040,694 4,336,794 4,582,991 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Scenario B 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 Scenario C 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 Scenario D 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 1987 1988 1989 1990 Millions of dollars GDP 4,739,471 5,103,791 5,484,350 5,803,067 GDP in scenario A 4,854,806 5,226,089 5,613,704 5,943,750 GDP in scenario B 4,866,150 5,240,357 5,631,357 5,963,292 GDP in scenario C 4,871,027 5,244,029 5,631,720 5,961,603 GDP in scenario D 4,866,039 5,239,936 5,629,729 5,961,864 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Scenario B 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 Scenario C 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 Scenario D 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1991 1992 1993 1994 Millions of dollars GDP 5,995,926 6,337,744 6,657,408 7,072,228 GDP in scenario A 6,148,830 6,495,124 6,815,813 7,235,079 GDP in scenario B 6,169,819 6,515,711 6,837,580 7,256,189 GDP in scenario C 6,167,636 6,515,410 6,838,426 7,257,585 GDP in scenario D 6,169,705 6,517,268 6,838,562 7,258,581 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 Scenario B 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 Scenario C 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 Scenario D 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 1995 1996 1997 1998 Millions of dollars GDP 7,397,651 7,816,860 8,304,344 8,746,997 GDP in scenario A 7,577,084 8,010,315 8,512,490 8,969,464 GDP in scenario B 7,597,208 8,031,684 8,533,352 8,990,650 GDP in scenario C 7,600,648 8,034,824 8,539,094 8,993,329 GDP in scenario D 7,597,809 8,030,540 8,532,485 8,985,561 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 Scenario B 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 Scenario C 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 Scenario D 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1999 2000 2001 2002 Millions of dollars GDP 9,268,412 9,816,973 10,127,976 10,469,603 GDP in scenario A 9,509,980 10,082,824 10,396,528 10,733,588 GDP in scenario B 9,529,791 10,098,969 10,414,785 10,751,493 GDP in scenario C 9,530,358 10,097,908 10,409,475 10,743,502 GDP in scenario D 9,526,281 10,098,146 10,410,270 10,747,342 Percent change in GDP Scenario A 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.5 Scenario B 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 Scenario C 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.6 Scenario D 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 NOTES. Percent change is calculated from GDP for each year. Adjusted GDP incorporates the impact of treating R&D as investment. Scenario A uses an input price index. Scenario B uses a multifactor productivity-adjusted price index. Scenario C uses a high-productivity service industries price index. Scenario D uses a top four R&D performers price index. Table 1.3 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) and GDI with R&D Adjustments, 1959-2002 1959 1960 1961 1962 Millions of dollars GDI 506,124 527,327 545,266 585,269 GDI in scenario A 515,279 537,039 555,342 595,781 GDI in scenario B 516,389 538,378 556,905 597,656 GDI in scenario C 516,769 538,685 557,276 597,900 GDI in scenario D 516,919 538,879 557,307 598,148 Percent change in GDI Scenario A 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Scenario B 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 Scenario C 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 Scenario D 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 1963 1964 1965 1966 Millions of dollars GDI 618,511 662,767 717,529 781,511 GDI in scenario A 629,908 675,631 731,826 797,863 GDI in scenario B 632,471 678,740 735,585 802,551 GDI in scenario C 632,675 678,852 735,638 802,153 GDI in scenario D 632,773 678,907 735,756 802,458 Percent change in GDI Scenario A 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 Scenario B 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 Scenario C 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Scenario D 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 1967 1968 1969 1970 Millions of dollars GDI 827,959 905,435 981,437 1,031,241 GDI in scenario A 846,433 926,765 1,005,779 1,057,086 GDI in scenario B 851,196 931,596 1,010,479 1,061,265 GDI in scenario C 850,768 931,143 1,009,288 1,059,845 GDI in scenario D 851,240 931,941 1,010,700 1,061,780 Percent change in GDI Scenario A 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 Scenario B 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 Scenario C 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Scenario D 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 1971 1972 1973 1974 Millions of dollars GDI 1,115,515 1,229,172 1,374,059 1,489,124 GDI in scenario A 1,142,739 1,258,827 1,406,177 1,524,121 GDI in scenario B 1,146,688 1,262,387 1,410,041 1,528,716 GDI in scenario C 1,146,406 1,262,670 1,409,978 1,527,309 GDI in scenario D 1,147,519 1,263,221 1,410,660 1,528,069 Percent change in GDI Scenario A 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 Scenario B 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 Scenario C 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 Scenario D 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 1975 1976 1977 1978 Millions of dollars GDI 1,620,627 1,800,138 2,008,651 2,268,128 GDI in scenario A 1,658,369 1,841,018 2,052,924 2,316,988 GDI in scenario B 1,662,613 1,845,551 2,057,971 2,322,973 GDI in scenario C 1,661,914 1,845,899 2,058,464 2,322,451 GDI in scenario D 1,662,840 1,846,861 2,059,520 2,323,475 Percent change in GDI Scenario A 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 Scenario B 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 Scenario C 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 Scenario D 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 1979 1980 1981 1982 Millions of dollars GDI 2,517,280 2,748,069 3,097,508 3,254,706 GDI in scenario A 2,572,642 2,811,059 3,169,461 3,335,114 GDI in scenario B 2,579,522 2,817,856 3,177,476 3,341,917 GDI in scenario C 2,576,800 2,814,552 3,174,297 3,341,474 GDI in scenario D 2,578,727 2,816,041 3,175,087 3,341,791 Percent change in GDI Scenario A 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 Scenario B 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 Scenario C 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 Scenario D 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 1983 1984 1985 1986 Millions of dollars GDI 3,490,932 3,918,582 4,203,578 4,415,834 GDI in scenario A 3,579,607 4,017,321 4,310,916 4,526,179 GDI in scenario B 3,586,733 4,025,854 4,320,477 4,536,173 GDI in scenario C 3,588,114 4,029,178 4,326,747 4,543,991 GDI in scenario D 3,587,022 4,026,103 4,320,110 4,536,000 Percent change in GDI Scenario A 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 Scenario B 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 Scenario C 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 Scenario D 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 1987 1988 1989 1990 Millions of dollars GDI 4,717,795 5,123,316 5,444,689 5,736,843 GDI in scenario A 4,833,130 5,245,614 5,574,043 5,877,526 GDI in scenario B 4,844,474 5,259,882 5,591,696 5,897,068 GDI in scenario C 4,849,351 5,263,554 5,592,059 5,895,379 GDI in scenario D 4,844,363 5,259,461 5,590,068 5,895,640 Percent change in GDI Scenario A 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 Scenario B 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 Scenario C 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 Scenario D 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 1991 1992 1993 1994 Millions of dollars GDI 5,923,410 6,234,996 6,517,867 6,929,731 GDI in scenario A 6,076,314 6,392,376 6,676,272 7,092,582 GDI in scenario B 6,097,303 6,412,963 6,698,039 7,113,692 GDI in scenario C 6,095,120 6,412,662 6,698,885 7,115,088 GDI in scenario D 6,097,189 6,414,520 6,699,021 7,116,084 Percent change in GDI Scenario A 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 Scenario B 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 Scenario C 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 Scenario D 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 1995 1996 1997 1998 Millions of dollars GDI 7,296,466 7,723,173 8,233,690 8,761,644 GDI in scenario A 7,475,899 7,916,628 8,441,836 8,984,111 GDI in scenario B 7,496,023 7,937,997 8,462,698 9,005,297 GDI in scenario C 7,499,463 7,941,137 8,468,440 9,007,976 GDI in scenario D 7,496,624 7,936,853 8,461,831 9,000,208 Percent change in GDI Scenario A 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Scenario B 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 Scenario C 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 Scenario D 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 1999 2000 2001 2002 Millions of dollars GDI 9,304,137 9,944,136 10,217,619 10,490,593 GDI in scenario A 9,545,705 10,209,987 10,486,171 10,754,578 GDI in scenario B 9,565,516 10,226,132 10,504,428 10,772,483 GDI in scenario C 9,566,083 10,225,071 10,499,118 10,764,492 GDI in scenario D 9,562,006 10,225,309 10,499,913 10,768,332 Percent change in GDI Scenario A 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 Scenario B 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 Scenario C 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 Scenario D 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 NOTES. Percent change is calculated from GDI for each year. Adjusted GDI incorporates the impact of treating R&D as investment. Table 1.4 National Saving and National Saving with R&D Adjustment as a Percent of Adjusted Gross National Income, 1959-2002 1959 1960 1961 1962 National saving 20.9 21.0 20.8 21.2 National saving in scenario A 22.9 23.2 23.1 23.4 National saving in scenario B 22.9 23.1 23.0 23.4 National saving in scenario C 22.9 23.1 23.0 23.4 National saving in scenario D 22.9 23.1 23.0 23.3 1963 1964 1965 1966 National saving 21.4 21.5 21.9 21.4 National saving in scenario A 23.8 23.9 24.3 23.8 National saving in scenario B 23.7 23.8 24.1 23.7 National saving in scenario C 23.6 23.8 24.1 23.7 National saving in scenario D 23.6 23.8 24.1 23.7 1967 1968 1969 1970 National saving 20.5 20.0 20.1 18.6 National saving in scenario A 22.8 22.2 22.2 20.6 National saving in scenario B 22.7 22.1 22.1 20.5 National saving in scenario C 22.7 22.1 22.1 20.6 National saving in scenario D 22.7 22.1 22.1 20.5 1971 1972 1973 1974 National saving 18.6 19.2 21.1 20.0 National saving in scenario A 20.5 21.0 22.8 21.8 National saving in scenario B 20.5 21.0 22.8 21.7 National saving in scenario C 20.5 21.0 22.8 21.8 National saving in scenario D 20.5 21.0 22.7 21.8 1975 1976 1977 1978 National saving 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.9 National saving in scenario A 20.0 20.6 21.3 22.6 National saving in scenario B 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.5 National saving in scenario C 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.5 National saving in scenario D 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.5 1979 1980 1981 1982 National saving 21.1 19.7 20.9 19.1 National saving in scenario A 22.8 21.6 22.8 21.1 National saving in scenario B 22.7 21.6 22.7 21.1 National saving in scenario C 22.8 21.6 22.7 21.1 National saving in scenario D 22.7 21.6 22.7 21.1 1983 1984 1985 1986 National saving 17.3 19.6 18.1 16.5 National saving in scenario A 19.4 21.6 20.4 18.8 National saving in scenario B 19.3 21.6 20.3 18.8 National saving in scenario C 19.3 21.6 20.3 18.8 National saving in scenario D 19.3 21.6 20.3 18.8 1987 1988 1989 1990 National saving 16.8 17.8 17.3 16.3 National saving in scenario A 19.1 19.9 19.4 18.5 National saving in scenario B 19.0 19.9 19.4 18.5 National saving in scenario C 19.0 19.9 19.4 18.5 National saving in scenario D 19.0 19.9 19.4 18.5 1991 1992 1993 1994 National saving 16.2 15.1 14.7 15.4 National saving in scenario A 18.5 17.4 16.9 17.5 National saving in scenario B 18.4 17.3 16.8 17.4 National saving in scenario C 18.4 17.3 16.8 17.4 National saving in scenario D 18.4 17.3 16.8 17.4 1995 1996 1997 1998 National saving 16.2 16.6 17.7 18.2 National saving in scenario A 18.2 18.7 19.8 20.3 National saving in scenario B 18.2 18.7 19.7 20.2 National saving in scenario C 18.2 18.7 19.7 20.2 National saving in scenario D 18.2 18.7 19.7 20.2 1999 2000 2001 2002 National saving 17.9 17.7 16.2 14.2 National saving in scenario A 20.0 19.9 18.4 16.4 National saving in scenario B 20.0 19.9 18.3 16.3 National saving in scenario C 20.0 19.9 18.3 16.4 National saving in scenario D 20.0 19.9 18.3 16.3 NOTE. Adjusted national saving incorporates the impact of treating R&D as investment. Table 1.5 Aggregate Current-Cost Returns to R&D Assets, 1959-2002 [Millions of chained (2000) dollars] 1959 1960 1961 1962 Business Net returns 3,689 3,788 3,981 4,362 Depreciation 4,001 4,297 4,483 4,610 Nonprofit institutions serving households Net returns 36 37 40 48 Depreciation 94 101 109 122 Government Net returns 1,336 1,500 1,768 2,225 Depreciation 3,496 4,107 4,806 5,674 1963 1964 1965 1966 Business Net returns 4,475 4,762 5,156 5,403 Depreciation 4,605 4,655 4,771 5,002 Nonprofit institutions serving households Net returns 54 63 74 84 Depreciation 135 149 165 187 Government Net returns 2,651 3,246 3,961 4,537 Depreciation 6,582 7,657 8,846 10,135 1967 1968 1969 1970 Business Net returns 5,444 5,943 6,256 6,361 Depreciation 5,363 5,855 6,549 7,493 Nonprofit institutions serving households Net returns 89 100 104 104 Depreciation 212 237 262 295 Government Net returns 4,821 5,313 5,368 5,147 Depreciation 11,462 12,633 13,561 14,631 1971 1972 1973 1974 Business Net returns 7,200 7,869 8,664 8,741 Depreciation 8,272 8,976 9,793 10,984 Nonprofit institutions serving households Net returns 117 128 140 138 Depreciation 325 353 381 419 Government Net returns 5,559 5,832 6,127 5,875 Depreciation 15,413 16,055 16,713 17,816 1975 1976 1977 1978 Business Net returns 9,904 11,380 13,017 14,213 Depreciation 12,619 14,205 15,748 17,058 Nonprofit institutions serving households Net returns 156 180 206 226 Depreciation 480 542 602 654 Government Net returns 6,380 7,067 7,800 8,202 Depreciation 19,616 21,288 22,771 23,755 1979 1980 1981 1982 Business Net returns 14,920 15,626 18,963 20,898 Depreciation 19,054 21,497 24,645 29,090 Nonprofit institutions serving households Net returns 236 244 290 312 Depreciation 728 809 909 1,048 Government Net returns 8,212 8,159 9,362 9,704 Depreciation 25,309 27,087 29,363 32,598 1983 1984 1985 1986 Business Net returns 24,731 30,911 33,998 36,039 Depreciation 32,527 36,241 40,548 44,862 Nonprofit institutions serving households Net returns 359 434 464 489 Depreciation 1,140 1,229 1,335 1,470 Government Net returns 10,759 12,575 13,061 13,471 Depreciation 34,147 35,577 37,591 40,465 1987 1988 1989 1990 Business Net returns 39,079 43,635 46,511 48,663 Depreciation 48,555 52,683 57,631 63,458 Nonprofit institutions serving households Net returns 543 631 707 773 Depreciation 1,628 1,838 2,114 2,432 Government Net returns 14,526 16,173 17,251 17,997 Depreciation 43,552 47,120 51,581 56,633 1991 1992 1993 1994 Business Net returns 51,236 54,646 57,143 60,390 Depreciation 70,774 76,371 79,972 82,617 Nonprofit institutions serving households Net returns 840 924 1,003 1,101 Depreciation 2,799 3,115 3,387 3,635 Government Net returns 18,591 19,400 20,118 21,258 Depreciation 61,971 65,426 67,944 70,180 1995 1996 1997 1998 Business Net returns 62,383 67,699 73,935 74,187 Depreciation 83,201 87,299 93,770 98,798 Nonprofit institutions serving households Net returns 1,158 1,249 1,343 1,322 Depreciation 3,727 3,887 4,110 4,249 Government Net returns 21,579 22,425 23,199 21,886 Depreciation 69,452 69,781 71,003 70,335 1999 2000 2001 2002 Business Net returns 78,729 84,244 83,335 88,324 Depreciation 109,445 122,177 134,688 141,814 Nonprofit institutions serving households Net returns 1,367 1,413 1,366 1,465 Depreciation 4,587 4,945 5,328 5,674 Government Net returns 21,608 21,242 19,654 20,478 Depreciation 72,489 74,342 76,654 79,343 NOTE. Implemented using assumptions defined in scenario D. Table 2.1. Historical-Cost Investment Flows in R&D Assets by Funder, 1959-2002 [Millions of dollars] 1959 1960 1961 Total R&D investment 12,575 13,819 14,625 Private 5,967 5,948 5,484 Business 5,834 5,807 5,318 Universities and colleges 16 18 19 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 117 123 147 Government 6,607 7,871 9,141 Federal Government extramural 4,785 5,876 6,962 Federal Government intramural 1,668 1,823 1,988 State and local governments (1) 111 123 136 Universities and colleges 44 48 54 1962 1963 1964 Total R&D investment 15,662 17,483 19,094 Private 5,009 5,057 5,248 Business 4,811 4,840 5,025 Universities and colleges 21 22 28 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 177 195 195 Government 10,653 12,426 13,847 Federal Government extramural 8,264 9,713 10,729 Federal Government intramural 2,177 2,476 2,853 State and local governments (1) 150 165 181 Universities and colleges 62 72 84 1965 1966 1967 Total R&D investment 20,374 22,321 23,728 Private 5,440 6,295 7,014 Business 5,180 6,004 6,697 Universities and colleges 38 46 52 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 222 244 266 Government 14,934 16,026 16,714 Federal Government extramural 11,492 12,312 12,786 Federal Government intramural 3,153 3,382 3,556 State and local governments (1) 194 215 226 Universities and colleges 95 116 146 1968 1969 1970 Total R&D investment 25,109 26,286 26,627 Private 8,562 10,325 10,761 Business 8,223 9,968 10,363 Universities and colleges 56 59 64 Other nonprofit institutions 334 serving households 284 298 Government 16,547 15,961 15,866 Federal Government extramural 12,520 11,751 11,288 Federal Government intramural 3,610 3,736 4,053 State and local governments (1) 253 298 329 Universities and colleges 164 176 196 1971 1972 1973 Total R&D investment 27,460 29,404 31,738 Private 11,017 12,133 13,711 Business 10,590 11,680 13,241 Universities and colleges 70 70 68 Other nonprofit institutions 358 384 402 serving households Government 16,442 17,270 18,027 Federal Government extramural 11,427 11,802 12,227 Federal Government intramural 4,430 4,831 5,084 State and local governments (1) 363 394 438 Universities and colleges 221 243 278 1974 1975 1976 Total R&D investment 34,330 36,757 40,523 Private 15,226 16,187 18,321 Business 14,696 15,582 17,646 Universities and colleges 74 81 90 Other nonprofit institutions 457 523 585 serving households Government 19,104 20,571 22,202 Federal Government extramural 12,895 13,911 15,209 Federal Government intramural 5,405 5,777 6,037 State and local governments (1) 480 529 566 Universities and colleges 324 354 390 1977 1978 1979 Total R&D investment 44,432 49,694 56,878 Private 20,248 233,811 27,955 Business 19,491 225,091 26,963 Universities and colleges 108 134 156 Other nonprofit institutions 649 738 836 serving households Government 24,184 26,313 28,924 Federal Government extramural 16,839 18,367 20,229 Federal Government intramural 6,271 6,706 7,292 State and local governments (1) 613 693 772 Universities and colleges 461 547 631 1980 1981 1982 Total R&D investment 65,461 74,798 82,924 Private 32,788 38,940 44,855 Business 31,673 37,656 43,423 Universities and colleges 174 202 230 Other nonprofit institutions 940 serving households 1,082 1,201 Government 32,674 35,858 38,069 Federal Government extramural 22,980 25,257 26,733 Federal Government intramural 8,106 8,795 9,333 State and local governments (1) 844 952 1,026 Universities and colleges 743 854 978 1983 1984 1985 Total R&D investment 91,680 103,948 116,262 Private 51,225 59,436 66,029 Business 49,685 57,706 64,082 Universities and colleges 242 269 304 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,328 1,462 1,643 Government 40,425 44,512 50,234 Federal Government extramural 27,976 30,718 34,877 Federal Government intramural 10,256 11,390 12,604 State and local governments (1) 1,083 1,169 1,326 Universities and colleges 1,110 1,235 1,427 1986 1987 1988 Total R&D investment 122,744 127,619 135,602 Private 66,478 68,792 73,273 Business 64,270 66,320 70,383 Universities and colleges 342 383 428 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,866 2,089 2,463 Government 56,267 58,827 62,328 Federal Government extramural 39,397 41,811 44,273 Federal Government intramural 13,688 13,510 14,190 State and local governments (1) 1,511 1,634 1,779 Universities and colleges 1,671 1,872 2,086 1989 1990 1991 Total R&D investment 143,924 154,233 163,575 Private 76,970 84,482 93,488 Business 73,726 80,962 89,578 Universities and colleges 478 546 618 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 2,765 2,974 3,293 Government 66,954 69,752 70,087 Federal Government extramural 47,568 49,401 49,557 Federal Government intramural 15,109 15,675 15,566 State and local governments (1) 1,914 2,039 2,128 Universities and colleges 2,362 2,636 2,836 1992 1993 1994 Total R&D investment 167,786 168,051 171,635 Private 94,842 93,106 94,715 Business 90,659 88,702 90,179 Universities and colleges 631 629 651 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 3,551 3,775 3,885 Government 72,945 74,945 76,920 Federal Government extramural 51,986 53,297 54,849 Federal Government intramural 15,867 16,405 16,599 State and local governments (1) 2,162 2,178 2,215 Universities and colleges 2,930 3,066 3,257 1995 1996 1997 Total R&D investment 185,086 198,769 213,827 Private 108,937 121,293 133,804 Business 104,242 116,338 128,485 Universities and colleges 708 782 797 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 3,987 4,173 4,522 Government 76,149 77,476 80,023 Federal Government extramural 54,108 55,210 56,832 Federal Government intramural 16,318 16,159 16,570 State and local governments (1) 2,344 2,473 2,590 Universities and colleges 3,379 3,633 4,032 1998 1999 2000 Total R&D investment 227,725 245,878 268,559 Private 146,481 163,863 185,749 Business 140,772 157,817 179,231 Universities and colleges 811 883 972 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 4,898 5,163 5,546 Government 81,244 82,015 82,810 Federal Government extramural 57,638 57,953 58,032 Federal Government intramural 16,566 16,481 16,450 State and local governments (1) 2,683 2,851 3,080 Universities and colleges 4,357 4,730 5,249 2001 2002 Total R&D investment 275,294 276,533 Private 186,207 178,269 Business 179,292 170,779 Universities and colleges 1,061 1,190 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 5,854 6,300 Government 89,087 98,264 Federal Government extramural 61,831 68,713 Federal Government intramural 18,249 19,922 State and local governments (1) 3,269 3,482 Universities and colleges 5,739 6,147 (1.) Excludes universities and colleges. Table 2.2. Real Investment Flows in R&D Assets by Funder, 1959-2002 [Millions of chained (2000) dollars] 1959 1960 1961 Total R&D investment 19,409 21,224 22,509 Private 9,211 9,135 8,440 Business 9,005 8,919 6,185 Universities and colleges 25 27 29 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 181 190 226 Government 10,199 12,089 14,069 Federal Government extramural 7,385 9,024 10,715 Federal Government intramural 2,574 2,801 3,060 State and local governments (1) 171 189 210 Universities and colleges 68 74 84 1962 1963 1964 Total R&D investment 23,972 27,174 29,844 Private 7,666 7,860 8,202 Business 7,364 7,522 7,854 Universities and colleges 31 34 44 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 271 303 305 Government 16,306 19,314 21,642 Federal Government extramural 12,649 15,097 16,769 Federal Government intramural 3,332 3,848 4,459 State and local governments (1) 229 257 282 Universities and colleges 95 112 131 1965 1966 1967 Total R&D investment 31,749 34,247 35,446 Private 8,477 9,659 10,478 Business 8,072 9,212 10,004 Universities and colleges 60 71 77 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 345 375 397 Government 23,271 24,589 24,968 Federal Government extramural 17,907 18,891 19,100 Federal Government intramural 4,913 5,190 5,312 State and local governments (1) 302 330 338 Universities and colleges 149 178 218 1968 1969 1970 Total R&D investment 36,558 37,446 36,008 Private 12,466 14,709 14,552 Business 11,972 14,201 14,014 Universities and colleges 81 84 86 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 413 424 452 Government 24,092 22,738 21,455 Federal Government extramural 18,228 16,740 15,265 Federal Government intramural 5,256 5,322 5,480 State and local governments (1) 369 425 444 Universities and colleges 239 250 266 1971 1972 1973 Total R&D investment 35,844 37,862 40,088 Private 14,382 15,624 17,318 Business 13,823 15,040 16,724 Universities and colleges 91 90 86 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 467 494 508 Government 21,463 22,238 22,769 Federal Government extramural 14,917 15,197 15,444 Federal Government intramural 5,783 6,221 6,421 State and local governments (1) 474 508 553 Universities and colleges 289 313 351 1974 1975 1976 Total R&D investment 41,528 40,811 42,011 Private 18,419 17,972 18,994 Business 17,777 17,301 18,294 Universities and colleges 89 90 93 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 552 581 607 Government 23,109 22,839 23,017 Federal Government extramural 15,598 15,445 15,767 Federal Government intramural 6,538 6,414 6,258 State and local governments (1) 580 567 587 Universities and colleges 392 393 405 1977 1978 1979 Total R&D investment 43,974 48,227 53,519 Private 20,039 22,690 26,304 Business 19,290 21,845 25,370 Universities and colleges 107 130 146 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 642 716 787 Government 23,935 25,536 27,216 Federal Government extramural 16,665 17,825 19,034 Federal Government intramural 6,206 6,508 6,861 State and local governments (1) 607 673 726 Universities and colleges 456 531 594 1980 1981 1982 Total R&D investment 59,495 64,962 67,722 Private 29,799 33,819 36,632 Business 28,786 32,704 35,463 Universities and colleges 159 176 188 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 855 939 981 Government 29,695 31,143 31,090 Federal Government extramural 20,885 21,935 21,832 Federal Government intramural 7,367 7,639 7,622 State and local governments (1) 767 827 838 Universities and colleges 675 742 798 1983 1984 1985 Total R&D investment 74,035 84,296 95,657 Private 41,390 48,199 54,326 Business 40,123 46,796 52,725 Universities and colleges 195 218 250 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,072 1,185 1,351 Government 32,644 36,097 41,331 Federal Government extramural 22,591 24,910 28,695 Federal Government intramural 8,282 9,237 10,370 State and local governments (1) 875 948 1,091 Universities and colleges 896 1,001 1,174 1986 1987 1988 Total R&D investment 101,469 106,655 113,115 Private 54,955 57,492 61,123 Business 53,130 55,426 58,711 Universities and colleges 282 320 357 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,543 1,746 2,054 Government 46,514 49,164 51,992 Federal Government extramural 32,568 34,943 36,931 Federal Government intramural 11,315 11,290 11,836 State and local governments (1) 1,249 1,366 1,484 Universities and colleges 1,381 1,564 1,740 1989 1990 1991 Total R&D investment 118,375 123,975 126,619 Private 63,307 67,908 72,366 Business 60,639 65,079 69,339 Universities and colleges 394 439 478 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 2,274 2,390 2,549 Government 55,069 56,067 54,252 Federal Government extramural 39,124 39,710 38,361 Federal Government intramural 12,427 12,600 12,049 State and local governments (1) 1,574 1,639 1,647 Universities and colleges 1,943 2,119 2,195 1992 1993 1994 Total R&D investment 128,330 129,120 132,713 Private 72,539 71,537 73,237 Business 69,340 68,153 69,729 Universities and colleges 483 483 504 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 2,716 2,900 3,004 Government 55,791 57,583 59,477 Federal Government extramural 39,761 40,950 42,411 Federal Government intramural 12,136 12,604 12,835 State and local governments (1) 1,653 1,673 1,713 Universities and colleges 2,241 2,356 2,518 1995 1996 1997 Total R&D investment 149,408 165,738 184,926 Private 87,938 101,137 115,719 Business 84,148 97,005 111,119 Universities and colleges 572 652 689 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 3,218 3,480 3,911 Government 61,470 64,601 69,207 Federal Government extramural 43,678 46,036 49,150 Federal Government intramural 13,172 13,474 14,330 State and local governments (1) 1,892 2,062 2,240 Universities and colleges 2,728 3,029 3,487 1998 1999 2000 Total R&D investment 213,125 239,359 268,559 Private 137,090 159,519 185,749 Business 131,747 153,633 179,231 Universities and colleges 759 860 972 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 4,584 5,026 5,546 Government 76,035 79,841 82,810 Federal Government extramural 53,943 56,417 58,032 Federal Government intramural 15,504 16,044 16,450 State and local governments (1) 2,511 2,775 3,080 Universities and colleges 4,078 4,604 5,249 2001 2002 Total R&D investment 285,661 288,335 Private 193,219 185,877 Business 186,044 178,067 Universities and colleges 1,101 1,241 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 6,074 6,569 Government 92,442 102,458 Federal Government extramural 64,159 71,645 Federal Government intramural 18,936 20,773 State and local governments (1) 3,392 3,631 Universities and colleges 5,955 6,409 (1.) Excludes universities and colleges. NOTE. Implemented using assumptions defined in scenario D. Table 2.3. Historical-Cost Net Stock of R&D Assets by Funder, 1959-2002 [Millions of dollars] 1959 1960 1961 1962 Total R&D net stock 43,541 49,792 55,851 61,961 Private 23,140 25,171 26,468 27,131 Business 22,622 24,600 25,829 26,405 Universities and colleges 86 90 94 99 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 432 481 545 627 Government 20,401 24,621 29,383 34,830 Federal Government extramural 13,278 16,721 20,653 25,199 Federal Government intramural 6,508 7,218 7,975 8,792 State and local governments (1) 431 480 534 593 Universities and colleges 184 201 221 246 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total R&D net stock 68,838 76,175 83,595 91,702 Private 27,739 28,432 29,199 30,642 Business 26,921 27,531 28,193 29,518 Universities and colleges 104 115 133 156 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 714 787 874 969 Government 41,100 47,743 54,395 61,060 Federal Government extramural 30,404 35,768 41,032 46,267 Federal Government intramural 9,763 10,938 12,214 13,510 State and local governments (1) 657 725 796 875 Universities and colleges 275 312 353 407 1967 1968 1969 1970 Total R&D net stock 99,895 108,137 116,231 123,426 Private 32,534 35,574 39,789 43,775 Business 31,284 34,198 38,289 42,131 Universities and colleges 180 205 229 253 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,069 1,171 1,271 1,390 Government 67,361 72,563 76,442 79,652 Federal Government extramural 51,153 55,061 57,672 59,463 Federal Government intramural 14,773 15,896 16,967 18,171 State and local governments (1) 953 1,044 1,164 1,293 Universities and colleges 482 561 640 725 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total R&D net stock 130,313 137,964 146,627 156,388 Private 47,399 51,513 56,469 62,083 Business 45,607 49,570 54,382 59,819 Universities and colleges 280 303 321 341 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,512 1,640 1,766 1,924 Government 82,913 86,451 90,158 94,305 Federal Government extramural 61,113 62,864 64,744 66,960 Federal Government intramural 19,543 21,080 22,620 24,227 State and local governments (1) 1,435 1,585 1,752 1,933 Universities and colleges 821 923 1,042 1,185 1975 1976 1977 1978 Total R&D net stock 166,930 179,375 193,568 210,499 Private 67,743 74,529 82,079 91,394 Business 65,259 71,793 79,053 88,016 Universities and colleges 365 393 434 493 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 2,119 2,342 2,591 2,885 Government 99,187 104,846 111,489 119,106 Federal Government extramural 69,784 73,384 77,952 83,249 Federal Government intramural 25,936 27,630 29,286 31,096 State and local governments (1) 2,133 2,337 2,553 2,812 Universities and colleges 1,335 1,496 1,698 1,949 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total R&D net stock 231,537 257,358 287,942 321,455 Private 103,543 118,340 136,608 157,608 Business 99,754 114,089 131,807 152,203 Universities and colleges 563 640 731 834 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 3,226 3,612 4,070 4,571 Government 127,994 139,018 151,334 163,848 Federal Government extramural 89,473 97,308 106,075 114,891 Federal Government intramural 33,176 35,698 38,479 41,340 State and local governments (1) 3,104 3,419 3,787 4,168 Universities and colleges 2,241 2,592 2,994 3,449 1983 1984 1985 1986 Total R&D net stock 358,041 400,487 447,957 494,302 Private 181,378 209,149 238,853 264,517 Business 175,331 202,409 231,323 256,074 Universities and colleges 933 1,042 1,167 1,308 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 5,114 5,698 6,363 7,135 Government 176,664 191,338 209,103 229,785 Federal Government extramural 123,535 133,419 145,667 160,259 Federal Government intramural 44,626 48,468 52,857 57,589 State and local governments (1) 4,544 4,944 5,429 6,013 Universities and colleges 3,958 4,507 5,150 5,923 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total R&D net stock 538,204 582,905 628,598 676,974 Private 288,472 312,979 337,229 364,791 Business 279,009 302,262 325,119 351,241 Universities and colleges 1,466 1,642 1,838 2,068 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 7,997 9,075 10,272 11,482 Government 249,732 269,926 291,369 312,184 Federal Government extramural 174,895 189,614 205,172 220,093 Federal Government intramural 61,447 65,356 69,528 73,598 State and local governments (1) 6,623 7,275 7,955 8,648 Universities and colleges 6,766 7,681 8,714 9,845 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total R&D net stock 726,735 772,928 812,435 849,332 Private 396,549 424,795 447,198 467,730 Business 381,415 408,062 428,902 447,982 Universities and colleges 2,329 2,563 2,760 2,949 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 12,805 14,169 15,536 16,799 Government 330,187 348,133 365,237 381,602 Federal Government extramural 232,919 246,068 258,457 270,424 Federal Government intramural 76,957 80,090 83,251 86,117 State and local governments (1) 9,319 9,921 10,447 10,929 Universities and colleges 10,992 12,054 13,082 14,132 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total R&D net stock 893,137 943,028 999,364 1,060,105 Private 498,337 535,783 579,184 627,802 Business 477,208 513,240 555,103 602,051 Universities and colleges 3,162 3,410 3,636 3,841 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 17,967 19,132 20,445 21,909 Government 394,800 407,245 420,180 432,303 Federal Government extramural 279,910 288,993 298,214 306,797 Federal Government intramural 88,294 89,997 91,825 93,375 State and local governments (1) 11,458 12,027 12,618 13,207 Universities and colleges 15,138 16,227 17,523 18,925 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total R&D net stock 1,128,526 1,207,664 1,281,162 1,344,780 Private 685,205 754,242 813,347 856,244 Business 657,725 724,855 781,972 822,646 Universities and colleges 4,082 4,369 4,694 5,091 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 23,398 25,019 26,681 28,506 Government 443,322 453,422 467,815 488,537 Federal Government extramural 314,384 320,906 329,963 344,028 Federal Government intramural 94,614 95,638 98,172 101,875 State and local governments (1) 13,863 14,632 15,461 16,363 Universities and colleges 20,461 22,247 24,218 26,271 (1.) Excludes universities and colleges NOTE: Implemented using assumptions defined in scenario D. Table 2.4. Current-Cost Net Stock of R&D Assets by Funder, 1959-2002 [Millions of chained (2000) dollars] 1959 1960 1961 1962 Total R&D net stock 44,928 50,300 55,629 60,574 Private 238,291 25,412 26,350 26,496 Business 23,284 24,826 25,706 25,780 Universities and colleges 97 97 99 101 Other non profit institutions serving households 448 488 545 615 Government 21,099 24,889 29,279 34,078 Federal Government extramural 13,633 16,806 20,498 24,592 Federal Government intramural 6,824 7,387 8,023 8,661 State and local governments (1) 449 489 536 582 Universities and colleges 193 206 223 242 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total R&D net stock 66,086 72,644 799,641 88,767 Private 26,536 26,947 27,705 29,419 Business 257,451 26,082 26,738 28,326 Universities and colleges 104 113 130 154 Other non profit institutions serving households 687 752 837 940 Government 39,550 45,698 52,259 59,348 Federal Government extramural 29,223 342,231 39,421 44,977 Federal Government intramural 9,427 10,482 11,735 13,126 State and local governments (1) 633 694 763 849 Universities and colleges 266 299 340 397 1967 1968 1969 1970 Total R&D net stock 97,903 106,707 116,824 126,304 Private 31,658 34,915 39,847 44,646 Business 30,429 33,553 38,335 42,961 Universities and colleges 180 205 232 261 Other non profit institutions serving households 1,050 1,158 1,279 1,423 Government 66,245 i 71,792 76,977 81,658 Federal Government extramural 50,314 54,482 58,078 60,973 Federal Government intramural 14,521 157,201 17,083 18,617 State and local governments (1) 936 1,032 1,171 1,324 Universities and colleges 475 557 646 744 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total R&D net stock 132,890 139,157 148,558 163,900 Private 48,183 51,814 57,084 64,921 Business 46,354 49,854 54,969 62,549 Universities and colleges 287 306 326 358 Other non profit institutions serving households 1,542 1,654 1,789 2,015 Government 84,708 87,342 91,474 98,979 Federal Government extramural 62,467 63,548 65,724 70,322 Federal Government intramural 19,940 21,267 22,922 25,392 State and local governments (1) 1,463 1,597 1,774 2,024 Universities and colleges 838 930 1,055 1,241 1975 1976 1977 1978 Total R&D net stock 181,171 196,426 208,336 222,036 Private 733,021 81,274 87,919 95,932 Business 70,611 78,288 84,677 92,386 Universities and colleges 397 431 467 518 Other non profit institutions serving households 2,294 2,555 2,775 3,028 Government 107,870 115,152 120,417 126,104 Federal Government extramural 75,973 80,702 84,290 88,223 Federal Government intramural 28,145 30,549 31,577 32,889 State and local governments (1) 2,308 2,549 2,737 2,955 Universities and colleges 1,443 1,628 1,812 2,037 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total R&D net stock 241,444 267,780 303,062 334,452 Private 10,745 122,580 143,152 163,190 Business 103,518 118,173 138,114 157,582 Universities and colleges 585 663 767 865 Other non profit institutions serving households 3,349 3,744 4,271 4,743 Government 133,992 145,200 159,910 171,262 Federal Government extramural 937,361 101,690 112,127 120,123 Federal Government intramural 34,713 37,282 40,672 432,381 State and local governments (1) 3,227 3,550 3,981 4,335 Universities and colleges 2,317 2,677 3,130 3,565 1983 1984 1985 1986 Total R&D net stock 359,444 386,788 419,786 452,274 Private 181,315 201,441 223,601 241,898 Business 175,258 194,943 216,554 234,173 Universities and colleges 934 1,004 1,092 1,197 Other non profit institutions serving households 5,123 5,495 5,955 6,529 Government 1,781,291 185,347 196,185 210,375 Federal Government extramural 1,245,951 129,267 136,682 146,746 Federal Government intramural 45,018 46,970 49,602 52,703 State and local governments (1) 4,563 4,774 5,083 5,499 Universities and colleges 39,521 4,336 4,818 5,428 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total R&D net stock 4,841,441 522,241 565,008 614,795 Private 259,431 280,404 303,086 331,405 Business 250,895 270,739 292,097 318,968 Universities and colleges 1,322 1,479 1,665 1,896 Other non profit institutions serving households 7,213 8,185 9,323 10,540 Government 224,713 241,837 261,923 283,390 Federal Government extramural 157,454 170,002 184,582 199,938 Federal Government intramural 55,178 58,363 62,248 66,517 State and local governments (1) 5,961 6,531 7,171 7,878 Universities and colleges 6,120 6,942 7,922 9,058 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total R&D net stock 658,363 683,625 696,604 694,650 Private 359,723 376,377 384,047 383,050 Business 345,858 361,396 368,134 366,639 Universities and colleges 2,133 2,294 2,396 2,443 Other non profit institutions serving households 11,732 12,687 13,518 13,968 Government 298,639 307,248 312,557 311,600 Federal Government extramural 210,795 217,320 221,333 220,990 Federal Government intramural 69,291 70,335 70,875 69,916 State and local governments (1) 8,465 8,794 8,975 8,953 Universities and colleges 10,087 10,798 11,373 11,741 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total R&D net stock 697,116 710,649 714,429 726,280 Private 390,490 406,843 418,813 437,115 Business 373,736 389,606 401,371 419,252 Universities and colleges 2,502 2,611 2,635 2,654 Other non profit institutions serving households 14,252 14,625 14,808 15,209 Government 306,626 303,806 295,615 289,166 Federal Government extramural 217,553 215,764 209,946 205,312 Federal Government intramural 68,120 66,566 63,942 61,666 State and local governments (1) 8,948 9,053 8,986 8,976 Universities and colleges 12,005 12,423 12,742 13,212 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total R&D net stock 761,111 803,138 844,879 887,686 Private 471,997 514,770 550,119 576,419 Business 453,279 495,094 529,271 553,928 Universities and colleges 2,768 2,916 3,122 3,428 Other non profit institutions serving households 15,950 16,760 17,727 19,063 Government 289,114 288,368 294,760 311,267 Federal Government extramural 205,031 203,897 207,395 218,634 Federal Government intramural 60,771 59,782 60,913 63,986 State and local governments (1) 9,242 9,594 10,076 10,748 Universities and colleges 14,071 15,094 16,376 17,898 (1.) Excludes universities and colleges. NOTE. Implemented using assumptions defined in scenario D. Table 2.5. Real Net Stock of R&D Assets by Funder, 1959-2002 [Millions of chained (2000) dollars] 1959 1960 1961 1962 Total R&D net stock 69,176 77,338 85,382 93,427 Private 36,690 39,071 40,443 40,867 Business 35,850 38,170 39,454 39,762 Universities and colleges 150 150 152 156 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 690 751 836 948 Government 32,486 38,267 44,939 52,560 Federal Government extramural 20,990 25,840 31,461 37,929 Federal Government intramural 10,506 11,358 12,314 13,359 State and local governments (1) 692 752 822 898 Universities and colleges 298 317 342 373 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total R&D net stock 103,004 113,371 123,643 134,377 Private 41,360 42,054 42,839 44,535 Business 40,128 40,705 41,343 42,880 Universities and colleges 162 176 201 233 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,071 1,173 1,295 1,422 Government 61,644 71,317 80,804 89,842 Federal Government extramural 45,548 53,410 60,954 68,086 Federal Government intramural 14,694 16,358 18,145 19,870 State and local governments (1) 986 1,083 1,180 1,285 Universities and colleges 415 466 525 601 1967 1968 1969 1970 Total R&D net stock 144,372 153,667 162,093 167,784 Private 46,684 50,281 55,287 59,308 Business 44,872 48,319 53,190 57,071 Universities and colleges 265 295 322 347 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,548 1,667 1,775 1,890 Government 97,688 10,338 10,680 108,476 Federal Government extramural 74,195 678,459 680,582 80,998 Federal Government intramural 21,413 22,639 23,702 24,731 State and local governments (1) 1,380 1,486 1,625 1,759 Universities and colleges 700 802 896 989 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total R&D net stock 172,286 177,461 183,588 189,770 Private 62,466 66,077 70,544 75,169 Business 60,095 63,577 67,931 72,421 Universities and colleges 372 391 402 414 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,999 2,109 2,211 2,333 Government 109,820 111,385 113,044 114,602 Federal Government extramural 80,985 81,040 81,221 81,422 Federal Government intramural 25,852 27,122 28,327 29,400 State and local governments (1) 1,896 2,036 2,192 2,343 Universities and colleges 1,086 1,187 1,304 1,437 1975 1976 1977 1978 Total R&D net stock 194,259 198,913 204,169 212,152 Private 78,597 82,303 86,160 91,662 Business 75,711 79,279 82,983 88,273 Universities and colleges 425 436 458 495 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 2,460 2,587 2,720 2,893 Government 115,662 116,610 118,008 120,491 Federal Government extramural 81,461 81,724 82,604 84,296 Federal Government intramural 30,179 30,657 30,946 31,425 State and local governments (1) 2,475 2,581 2,683 2,823 Universities and colleges 1,547 1,649 1,776 1,947 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total R&D net stock 223,244 237,847 255,115 271,602 Private 99,352 108,878 120,504 132,524 Business 95,715 104,963 116,263 127,969 Universities and colleges 541 589 646 703 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 3,096 3,326 3,595 3,852 Government 123,892 128,969 134,610 139,078 Federal Government extramural 86,670 90,323 94,388 97,550 Federal Government intramural 32,096 33,115 34,237 35,113 State and local governments (1) 2,984 3,154 3,351 3,520 Universities and colleges 2,142 2,378 2,635 2,895 1983 1984 1985 1986 Total R&D net stock 290,874 315,934 346,203 375,919 Private 146,726 164,540 184,407 201,060 Business 141,825 159,232 178,595 194,639 Universities and colleges 756 820 901 995 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 4,146 4,488 4,911 5,427 Government 144,148 151,394 161,796 174,859 Federal Government extramural 100,827 105,587 112,724 121,972 Federal Government intramural 36,430 38,365 40,907 43,805 State and local governments (1) 3,693 3,900 4,192 4,571 Universities and colleges 3,198 3,542 3,973 4,512 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total R&D net stock 404,237 432,565 459,376 484,866 Private 216,612 232,255 246,422 261,366 Business 209,485 224,250 237,488 251,558 Universities and colleges 1,104 1,225 1,354 1,495 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 6,023 6,780 7,580 8,313 Government 187,625 200,311 212,954 223,499 Federal Government extramural 131,466 140,810 150,073 157,683 Federal Government intramural 46,071 48,341 50,610 52,460 State and local governments (1) 4,978 5,409 5,830 6,213 Universities and colleges 5,110 5,750 6,441 7,143 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total R&D net stock 506,564 524,059 536,926 548,681 Private 276,782 288,526 296,015 302,558 Business 266,114 277,042 283,749 289,596 Universities and colleges 1,641 1,759 1,847 1,930 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 9,027 9,726 10,419 11,033 Government 229,782 235,532 240,912 246,123 Federal Government extramural 162,192 166,595 170,598 174,553 Federal Government intramural 53,315 53,918 54,629 55,224 State and local governments (1) 6,513 6,742 6,918 7,072 Universities and colleges 7,761 8,278 8,766 9,274 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total R&D net stock 571,854 603,373 642,243 693,102 Private 320,324 345,428 376,497 417,146 Business 306,580 330,794 360,817 400,100 Universities and colleges 2,053 2,217 2,369 2,532 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 11,691 12,418 13,311 14,514 Government 251,529 257,945 265,746 275,956 Federal Government extramural 178,461 183,194 188,733 195,933 Federal Government intramural 55,880 56,518 57,481 58,849 State and local governments (1) 7,340 7,687 8,078 8,566 Universities and colleges 9,848 10,547 11,454 12,608 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total R&D net stock 750,886 817,981 878,812 930,634 Private 465,656 524,284 572,214 604,308 Business 447,190 504,244 550,528 580,728 Universities and colleges 2,731 2,970 3,247 3,594 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 15,736 17,070 18,439 19,985 Government 285,230 293,697 306,599 326,327 Federal Government extramural 202,276 207,666 215,724 229,212 Federal Government intramural 59,954 60,887 63,360 67,082 State and local governments (1) 9,118 9,772 10,480 11,269 Universities and colleges 13,882 15,373 17,034 18,764 (1.) Excludes universities and colleges. NOTE: Implemented using assumptions defined in scenario D. Table 2.6. Historical-Cost Depreciation of R&D Assets by Funder, 1959-2002 [Millions of dollars] 1959 1960 1961 1962 Total R&D depreciation 6,574 7,568 8,566 9,552 Private 3,557 3,917 4,187 4,346 Business 3,477 3,829 4,089 4,235 Universities and colleges 14 14 15 16 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 66 74 83 95 Government 3,017 3,650 4,379 5,206 Federal Government extramural 1,921 2,432 3,030 3,718 Federal Government intramural 1,001 1,113 1,232 1,359 State and local governments (1) 66 74 82 91 Universities and colleges 29 31 34 38 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total R&D depreciation 10,605 11,758 12,954 14,213 Private 4,449 4,554 4,673 4,852 Business 4,324 4,415 4,518 4,679 Universities and colleges 16 18 20 23 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 109 122 135 149 Government 6,156 7,203 8,281 9,361 Federal Government extramural 4,508 5,365 6,227 7,078 Federal Government intramural 1,504 1,678 1,877 2,086 State and local governments (1) 101 112 123 136 Universities and colleges 42 48 54 62 1967 1968 1969 1970 Total R&D depreciation 15,535 16,867 18,192 19,432 Private 5,122 5,522 6,111 6,775 Business 4,930 5,309 5,877 6,521 Universities and colleges 27 31 35 39 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 165 182 198 216 Government 10,412 11,345 12,082 12,656 Federal Government extramural 7,899 8,612 9,140 9,497 Federal Government intramural 2,293 2,487 2,665 2,849 State and local governments (1) 148 162 179 199 Universities and colleges 72 85 97 111 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total R&D depreciation 20,573 21,752 23,075 24,569 Private 7,392 8,020 8,755 9,612 Business 7,114 7,717 8,429 9,260 Universities and colleges 43 47 512 54 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 235 256 761 299 Government 13,181 13,732 14,320 14,956 Federal Government extramural 9,776 10,052 10,347 10,679 Federal Government intramural 3,058 3,294 3,543 3,798 State and local governments (1) 221 245 271 299 Universities and colleges 125 141 159 181 1975 1976 1977 1978 Total R&D depreciation 26,215 28,079 30,239 32,762 Private 10,526 11,536 12,698 14,065 Business 10,141 11,112 12,231 13,546 Universities and colleges 57 61 67 75 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 328 362 400 444 Government 15,689 16,543 17,541 18,697 Federal Government extramural 11,087 11,608 12,271 13,070 Federal Government intramural 4,067 4,343 4,615 4,896 State and local governments (1) 330 362 396 435 Universities and colleges 204 230 259 296 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total R&D depreciation 35,841 39,640 44,214 49,411 Private 15,806 17,990 20,671 23,855 Business 15,225 17,339 19,937 23,028 Universities and colleges 86 98 111 127 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 495 554 623 701 Government 20,035 21,650 23,542 25,555 Federal Government extramural 14,005 15,144 16,491 17,916 Federal Government intramural 5,211 5,584 6,014 6,472 State and local governments (1) 480 529 584 645 Universities and colleges 340 392 453 522 1983 1984 1985 1986 Total R&D depreciation 55,094 61,502 68,793 76,399 Private 27,485 31,664 36,325 40,814 Business 26,557 30,628 35,168 39,519 Universities and colleges 143 160 179 201 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 785 877 978 1,094 Government 27,609 29,838 32,468 35,586 Federal Government extramural 19,332 20,834 22,629 24,805 Federal Government intramural 6,970 7,548 8,216 8,955 State and local governments (1) 706 769 841 928 Universities and colleges 601 686 783 898 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total R&D depreciation 83,717 90,901 98,230 105,857 Private 44,837 48,766 52,720 56,921 Business 43,385 47,130 50,869 54,840 Universities and colleges 225 252 282 317 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,227 1,384 1,569 1,764 Government 38,880 42,134 45,510 48,937 Federal Government extramural 27,175 29,555 32,010 34,481 Federal Government intramural 10,259 10,281 10,937 11,605 State and local governments (1) 6,521 1,127 1,235 1,346 Universities and colleges 1,029 1,171 1,329 1,505 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total R&D depreciation 113,814 121,594 128,543 134,736 Private 61,730 66,595 70,702 74,183 Business 59,405 64,012 67,862 71,099 Universities and colleges 356 397 432 463 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,969 2,187 2,409 2,622 Government 52,084 54,999 57,841 60,555 Federal Government extramural 36,731 38,837 40,907 42,882 Federal Government intramural 12,207 12,734 13,244 13,733 State and local governments (1) 1,457 1,560 1,651 1,733 Universities and colleges 1,690 1,869 2,038 2,207 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total R&D depreciation 141,281 148,878 157,491 166,984 Private 78,330 83,848 90,403 97,864 Business 75,015 80,307 86,622 93,823 Universities and colleges 495 533 571 606 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 2,819 3,008 3,209 3,434 Government 62,952 65,031 67,088 69,120 Federal Government extramural 44,622 46,127 47,611 49,055 Federal Government intramural 14,141 14,456 14,742 15,016 State and local governments (1) 1,815 1,904 1,998 2,094 Universities and colleges 2,373 2,543 2,736 2,955 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total R&D depreciation 177,457 189,421 201,797 212,914 Private 106,460 116,712 127,102 135,372 Business 102,144 112,101 122,175 130,104 Universities and colleges 642 685 735 793 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 3,674 3,926 4,192 4,475 Government 70,997 72,709 74,695 77,542 Federal Government extramural 50,366 51,510 52,773 54,648 Federal Government intramural 15,242 15,426 15,714 16,220 State and local governments (1) 2,195 2,310 2,440 2,580 Universities and colleges 3,193 3,463 3,767 4,094 (1.) Excludes universities and colleges. NOTE. Implemented using assumptions defined in scenario D. Table 2.7. Current-Cost Depreciation of R&D Assets by Funder, 959-2002 [Millions of current (2000) dollars] 1959 1960 1961 1962 Total R&D depreciation 7,591 8,505 9,399 10,406 Private 4,095 4,398 4,593 4,732 Business 4,001 4,297 4,483 4,610 Universities and colleges 18 17 17 18 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 76 84 92 104 Government 3,496 4,107 4,806 5,674 Federal Government extramural 2,208 2,718 3,310 4,038 Federal Government intramural 1,177 1,269 1,367 1,494 State and local governments (1) 77 84 91 100 Universities and colleges 34 36 38 42 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total R&D depreciation 11,322 12,461 13,782 15,325 Private 4,739 4,804 4,936 5,189 Business 4,605 4,655 4,771 5,002 Universities and colleges 18 19 22 26 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 116 129 144 161 Government 6,582 7,657 8,846 10,135 Federal Government extramural 4,811 5,699 6,650 7,664 Federal Government intramural 1,617 1,788 2,006 2,258 State and local governments (1) 109 119 132 146 Universities and colleges 45 51 58 67 1967 1968 1969 1970 Total R&D depreciation 17,037 18,725 20,371 22,419 Private 5,575 6,092 6,811 7,788 Business 5,363 5,855 6,549 7,493 Universities and colleges 30 35 40 45 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 182 202 222 249 Government 11,462 12,633 13,561 14,631 Federal Government extramural 8,696 9,591 10,261 10,981 Federal Government intramural 2,523 2,768 2,990 3,292 State and local governments (1) 163 180 201 230 Universities and colleges 80 94 110 128 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total R&D depreciation 24,011 25,384 26,888 29,219 Private 8,598 9,330 10,174 11,404 Business 8,272 8,976 9,793 10,984 Universities and colleges 51 55 59 64 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 275 298 322 356 Government 15,413 16,055 16,713 17,816 Federal Government extramural 11,437 11,760 12,084 12,729 Federal Government intramural 3,571 3,645 4,129 4,518 State and local governments (1) 258 285 315 355 Universities and colleges 147 165 185 214 1975 1976 1977 1978 Total R&D depreciation 32,714 36,034 39,121 41,467 Private 13,099 14,746 16,350 17,712 Business 12,619 14,205 15,748 17,058 Universities and colleges 72 79 87 95 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 408 463 515 559 Government 19,616 21,288 22,771 23,755 Federal Government extramural 13,876 14,956 15,949 16,624 Federal Government intramural 5,075 5,576 5,979 6,212 State and local governments (1) 410 463 511 548 Universities and colleges 254 293 332 371 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total R&D depreciation 45,091 49,393 54,916 62,736 Private 19,782 22,306 25,553 30,137 Business 19,054 21,497 24,645 29,090 Universities and colleges 107 121 138 161 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 620 688 771 887 Government 25,309 27,087 29,363 32,598 Federal Government extramural 17,706 18,960 20,577 22,861 Federal Government intramural 6,578 6,986 7,503 8,260 State and local governments (1) 601 657 725 818 Universities and colleges 423 484 558 659 1983 1984 1985 1986 Total R&D depreciation 67,814 73,047 79,473 86,798 Private 33,667 37,470 41,882 46,332 Business 32,527 36,241 40,548 44,862 Universities and colleges 176 190 207 228 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 964 1,039 1,128 1,243 Government 34,147 35,577 37,591 40,465 Federal Government extramural 23,917 24,848 26,203 28,210 Federal Government intramural 8,625 9,004 9,515 10,182 State and local governments (1) 870 914 971 1,053 Universities and colleges 735 811 902 1,020 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total R&D depreciation 93,735 101,641 111,326 122,523 Private 50,183 54,521 59,745 65,889 Business 48,555 52,683 57,631 63,458 Universities and colleges 252 283 322 370 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,376 1,555 1,792 2,062 Government 43,552 47,120 51,581 56,633 Federal Government extramural 30,450 33,072 36,306 39,934 Federal Government intramural 10,798 11,468 12,350 13,374 State and local governments (1) 1,147 1,262 1,403 1,563 Universities and colleges 1,156 1,319 1,522 1,763 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total R&D depreciation 135,544 144,913 151,303 156,432 Private 73,573 79,486 83,359 86,252 Business 70,774 76,371 79,972 82,617 Universities and colleges 429 478 514 544 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 2,371 2,637 2,873 3,091 Government 61,971 65,426 67,944 70,180 Federal Government extramural 43,732 46,230 48,086 49,735 Federal Government intramural 14,461 15,078 15,480 15,829 State and local governments (1) 1,740 1,864 1,948 2,016 Universities and colleges 2,038 2,255 2,431 2,600 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total R&D depreciation 156,380 160,967 168,883 173,382 Private 86,928 91,186 97,880 103,047 Business 83,201 87,299 93,770 98,798 Universities and colleges 556 585 622 636 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 3,171 3,302 3,488 3,613 Government 69,452 69,781 71,003 70,335 Federal Government extramural 49,266 49,535 50,426 49,945 Federal Government intramural 15,506 15,395 15,456 15,104 State and local governments (1) 2,011 2,058 2,137 2,161 Universities and colleges 2,669 2,793 2,983 3,124 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total R&D depreciation 186,521 201,464 216,670 226,832 Private 114,032 127,122 140,016 147,489 Business 109,445 122,177 134,688 141,814 Universities and colleges 680 732 794 858 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 3,907 4,213 4,534 4,817 Government 72,489 74,342 76,654 79,343 Federal Government extramural 51,437 52,642 54,064 55,777 Federal Government intramural 15,346 15,518 15,865 16,352 State and local governments (1) 2,284 2,426 2,586 2,726 Universities and colleges 3,422 3,757 4,138 4,488 (1.) Excludes universities and colleges. NOTE. Implemented using assumptions defined in scenario D. Table 2.8. Real Depreciation of R&D Assets by Funder, 1959-2002 [Millions of current (2000) dollars] 1959 1960 1961 1962 Total R&D depreciation 11,716 13,063 14,466 15,926 Private 6,321 6,754 7,069 7,242 Business 6,176 6,599 6,901 7,056 Universities and colleges 27 27 27 27 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 118 128 141 159 Government 5,395 6,308 7,397 8,684 Federal Government extramural 3,408 4,175 5,094 6,181 Federal Government intramural 1,816 1,949 2,104 2,287 State and local governments (1) 1,191 129 140 153 Universities and colleges 52 155 59 64 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total R&D depreciation 17,597 19,477 21,477 23,513 Private 7,366 7,508 7,693 7,962 Business 7,157 7,276 7,435 7,675 Universities and colleges 29 30 34 40 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 181 202 224 248 Government 10,231 11,968 13,784 15,551 Federal Government extramural 7,478 89,081 10,363 11,760 Federal Government intramural 2,513 27,951 3,126 3,464 State and local governments (1) 169 186 205 225 Universities and colleges 71 79 90 103 1967 1968 1969 1970 Total R&D depreciation 25,450 27,263 29,020 30,317 Private 8,329 8,870 9,702 10,532 Business 8,012 8,525 9,329 10,134 Universities and colleges 45 51 57 62 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 271 294 316 337 Government 171,221 18,393 19,318 19,786 Federal Government extramural 29,911 13,964 14,617 14,850 Federal Government intramural 3,769 4,030 4,259 4,451 State and local governments (1) 243 2,621 286 311 Universities and colleges 119 137 156 173 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total R&D depreciation 31,342 32,687 33,961 135,345 Private 11,223 12,013 128,511 13,794 Business 10,798 11,558 12,370 13,287 Universities and colleges 66 71 75 77 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 358 384 406 430 Government 20,119 20,673 21,110 21,551 Federal Government extramural 14,929 15,143 15,263 15,397 Federal Government intramural 4,662 4,951 5,216 5,465 State and local governments (1) 337 368 398 429 Universities and colleges 191 212 234 259 1975 1976 1977 1978 Total R&D depreciation 363,221 37,357 38,718 40,243 Private 14,543 15,288 16,182 17,189 Business 14,011 14,726 15,586 16,554 Universities and colleges 79 82 86 92 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 4,531 480 510 543 Government 21,779 22,069 22,536 23,054 Federal Government extramural 15,406 15,505 15,785 16,133 Federal Government intramural 5,635 5,780 5,917 6,029 State and local governments (1) 456 480 506 532 Universities and colleges 282 304 329 360 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total R&D depreciation 42,428 44,891 47,694 51,235 Private 18,614 20,273 22,193 24,613 Business 17,929 19,538 21,404 23,757 Universities and colleges 101 110 119 131 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 584 625 670 724 Government 23,814 24,618 25,501 26,622 Federal Government extramural 16,660 17,232 17,871 18,670 Federal Government intramural 6,190 6,349 6,516 6,746 State and local governments (1) 566 597 629 668 Universities and colleges 398 440 485 538 1983 1984 1985 1986 Total R&D depreciation 54,762 59,237 65,388 71,753 Private 27,188 303,861 34,459 38,301 Business 26,267 29,389 33,361 37,086 Universities and colleges 142 154 170 188 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 779 843 928 1,027 Government 27,575 28,851 30,928 33,451 Federal Government extramural 19,314 20,150 21,559 23,320 Federal Government intramural 6,965 7,302 7,828 8,417 State and local governments (1) 702 741 799 871 Universities and colleges 593 658 742 843 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total R&D depreciation 783,371 84,786 91,564 98,486 Private 41,940 45,480 49,140 52,963 Business 405,791 43,947 47,401 51,008 Universities and colleges 211 236 265 297 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,150 1,297 1,474 1,658 Government 36,398 39,306 42,425 45,523 Federal Government extramural 25,448 27,588 29,861 32,099 Federal Government intramural 9,025 9,566 10,158 1,075 State and local governments (1) 959 1,052 1,154 1,256 Universities and colleges 966 1,100 1,251 14,171 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total R&D depreciation 104,921 110,836 116,252 120,958 Private 56,951 60,795 64,048 66,693 Business 54,784 58,412 61,446 63,882 Universities and colleges 332 366 395 421 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,835 2,017 22,071 2,390 Government 47,970 50,041 52,204 54,265 Federal Government extramural 33,852 35,359 36,946 38,457 Federal Government intramural 11,194 11,532 11,894 12,240 State and local governments (1) 1,347 1,425 1,497 1,559 Universities and colleges 1,577 1,725 1,867 2,010 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total R&D depreciation 126,236 134,218 146,056 162,266 Private 70,172 76,033 84,650 96,441 Business 67,163 72,792 181,095 92,464 Universities and colleges 443 488 538 596 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 2,560 2,753 3,017 3,381 Government 56,064 58,185 61,406 65,826 Federal Government extramural 39,769 41,303 43,611 46,743 Federal Government intramural 12,517 12,837 13,367 141,361 State and local governments (1) 1,624 1,716 1,848 2,022 Universities and colleges 2,154 2,329 2,580 2,924 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total R&D depreciation 181,575 201,464 224,830 236,513 Private 111,009 127,122 145,289 153,783 Business 106,543 122,177 139,760 147,867 Universities and colleges 662 732 824 894 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 3,804 4,213 4,705 5,022 Government 70,567 74,342 79,541 82,730 Federal Government extramural 50,073 52,642 56,100 58,158 Federal Government intramural 14,939 15,518 16,463 17,050 State and local governments (1) 2,224 2,426 2,683 2,843 Universities and colleges 3,331 3,757 4,294 4,679 (1.) Excludes universities and colleges. NOTE. Implemented using assumptions defined in scenario D. Table 3.1. Historical-Cost Investment in R&D Assets by Performer, 1959-2002 [Millions of dollars] 1959 1960 1961 1962 Total R&D investment 12,575 13,819 14,625 15,662 Private 10,423 11,437 11,985 12,711 Business 9,283 10,108 10,404 11,076 Universities and colleges 286 346 406 467 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 178 208 256 311 Federally funded R&D centers Business 438 498 576 442 Universities and colleges 192 209 237 272 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 45 68 106 142 Government 2,152 2,382 2,639 2,951 Federal Government 1,668 1,823 1,988 2,177 State and local governments (1) 48 52 57 62 Universities and colleges 291 345 411 506 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 146 161 183 207 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total R&D investment 17,483 19,094 20,374 22,321 Private 14,090 15,179 16,021 17,588 Business 12,270 13,117 13,873 15,309 Universities and colleges 529 605 692 784 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 376 431 496 520 Federally funded R&D centers Business 428 479 383 364 Universities and colleges 326 369 375 387 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 162 178 202 225 Government 3,392 3,916 4,353 4,732 Federal Government 2,476 2,853 3,153 3,382 State and local governments (1) 67 67 75 85 Universities and colleges 626 747 875 1,010 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 224 248 250 255 1967 1968 1969 1970 Total R&D investment 23,728 25,109 26,286 26,627 Private 18,662 19,846 20,789 20,682 Business 16,095 17,178 18,047 17,844 Universities and colleges 873 931 954 979 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 606 610 592 662 Federally funded R&D centers Business 428 424 475 487 Universities and colleges 413 436 445 449 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 246 267 276 261 Government 5,066 5,263 5,497 5,945 Federal Government 3,556 3,610 3,736 4,053 State and local governments (1) 104 128 145 162 Universities and colleges 1,138 1,244 1,331 1,445 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 269 282 286 286 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total R&D investment 27,460 29,404 31,738 34,330 Private 20,984 22,345 24,228 26,255 Business 18,082 19,268 21,043 22,732 Universities and colleges 1,001 1,046 1,099 1,188 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 702 755 786 860 Federally funded R&D centers Business 507 572 567 677 Universities and colleges 452 478 515 557 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 240 227 218 241 Government 6,476 7,058 7,510 8,075 Federal Government 4,430 4,831 5,084 5,405 State and local governments (1) 189 223 251 266 Universities and colleges 1,573 1,708 1,859 2,053 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 284 296 317 352 1975 1976 1977 1978 Total R&D investment 36,757 40,523 44,432 49,694 Private 27,997 31,201 34,439 38,739 Business 24,090 26,801 29,534 32,993 Universities and colleges 1,313 1,416 1,563 1,826 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 948 1,063 1,180 1,395 Federally funded R&D centers Business 761 930 1,005 1,128 Universities and colleges 632 725 859 1,046 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 253 267 298 352 Government 8,760 9,322 9,993 10,954 Federal Government 5,777 6,037 6,271 6,706 State and local governments (1) 284 301 312 340 Universities and colleges 2,289 2,491 2,792 3,180 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 411 493 618 729 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total R&D investment 56,878 65,461 74,798 82,924 Private 44,750 51,852 59,929 67,048 Business 38,208 44,451 51,843 58,534 Universities and colleges 2,122 2,376 2,599 2,770 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,588 1,822 2,046 2,186 Federally funded R&D centers Business 1,214 1,333 1,450 1,555 Universities and colleges 1,200 1,355 1,415 1,434 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 418 515 576 570 Government 12,128 13,609 14,869 15,875 Federal Government 7,292 8,106 8,795 9,333 State and local governments (1) 387 428 461 482 Universities and colleges 3,613 4,108 4,528 4,876 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 836 967 1,085 1,185 1983 1984 1985 1986 Total R&D investment 91,680 103,948 116,262 122,744 Private 74,310 84,687 94,849 99,225 Business 65,097 74,529 83,607 870,601 Universities and colleges 2,956 3,244 3,608 4,024 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 2,415 2,730 3,090 3,433 Federally funded R&D centers Business 1,650 1,800 1,919 1,940 Universities and colleges 1,565 1,732 1,927 2,151 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 627 651 698 616 Government 17,370 19,261 21,414 23,520 Federal Government 10,256 11,390 12,604 13,688 State and local governments (1) 491 483 497 538 Universities and colleges 5,291 5,842 6,586 7,416 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 1,331 1,547 1,726 1,878 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total R&D investment 127,619 135,602 143,924 154,233 Private 103,325 109,567 115,849 124,540 Business 90,215 94,955 99,929 107,470 Universities and colleges 4,462 4,953 5,398 5,753 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 3,658 4,297 4,916 5,380 Federally funded R&D centers Business 2,046 2,176 2,251 2,385 Universities and colleges 2,366 2,576 2,681 2,751 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 578 610 674 801 Government 24,293 26,035 28,075 29,694 Federal Government 13,510 14,190 15,109 15,675 State and local governments (1) 559 604 641 629 Universities and colleges 8,251 9,188 10,191 11,167 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 1,973 2,054 2,133 2,223 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total R&D investment 163,575 167,786 168,051 171,635 Private 133,034 136,135 135,078 137,755 Business 114,739 116,795 115,483 117,444 Universities and colleges 6,132 6,503 6,815 7,113 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 6,072 6,514 6,779 6,806 Federally funded R&D centers Business 2,341 2,415 2,017 2,261 Universities and colleges 2,850 2,942 2,967 3,041 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 900 965 1,017 1,090 Government 30,542 31,652 32,972 33,880 Federal Government 15,566 15,867 16,405 16,599 State and local governments (1) 597 566 588 596 Universities and colleges 12,060 12,864 13,632 14,375 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 2,319 2,354 2,348 2,310 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total R&D investment 185,086 198,769 213,827 227,725 Private 150,753 163,847 177,485 190,012 Business 129,878 142,389 155,418 167,065 Universities and colleges 7,380 7,744 8,192 8,658 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 6,869 7,065 7,349 8,011 Federally funded R&D centers Business 2,338 2,362 2,186 2,131 Universities and colleges 3,087 3,064 3,099 3,004 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,201 1,223 1,241 1,143 Government 34,333 34,922 36,342 37,713 Federal Government 16,318 16,159 16,570 16,566 State and local governments (1) 547 506 519 583 Universities and colleges 15,142 15,868 16,799 17,916 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 2,326 2,389 2,455 2,649 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total R&D investment 245,878 268,559 275,294 276,533 Private 206,646 227,394 229,839 226,294 Business 182,011 199,886 199,815 193,677 Universities and colleges 9,246 10,012 10,969 12,099 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 8,774 10,389 11,557 12,474 Federally funded R&D centers Business 2,001 2,010 2,072 2,316 Universities and colleges 2,986 3,044 3,235 3,409 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,628 2,053 2,192 2,319 Government 39,232 41,165 45,455 50,239 Federal Government 16,481 16,450 18,249 19,922 State and local governments (1) 611 609 680 769 Universities and colleges 19,407 21,298 23,413 25,838 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 2,733 2,808 3,113 3,710 (1.) Excludes universities and colleges Table 3.2. Real Investment in R&D Assets by Performer, 1959--2002 [Millions of chained (2000) dollars] 1959 1960 1961 1962 Total R&D investment 19,409 21,224 225,091 23,972 Private 16,087 175,661 184,471 19,455 Business 14,329 155,261 160,131 16,953 Universities and colleges 441 532 6,251 715 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 275 319 394 476 Federally funded R&D centers Business 675 764 887 676 Universities and colleges 297 320 365 417 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 70 105 163 218 Government 3,322 3,658 4,062 4,517 Federal Government 2,574 2,801 3,060 3,332 State and local governments (1) 74 80 88 94 Universities and colleges 449 530 632 774 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 225 248 282 317 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total R&D investment 27,174 29,844 31,749 34,247 Private 21,901 23,724 24,965 26,987 Business 19,071 20,502 21,619 23,490 Universities and colleges 822 945 10,791 1,203 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 584 674 773 798 Federally funded R&D centers Business 666 748 596 558 Universities and colleges 506 577 584 593 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 251 279 315 345 Government 5,273 6,120 6,783 7,261 Federal Government 3,848 4,459 4,913 5,190 State and local governments (1) 104 105 116 131 Universities and colleges 973 1,168 1,364 1,549 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 348 387 390 390 1967 1968 1969 1970 Total R&D investment 35,446 365,581 37,446 36,008 Private 27,877 28,895 29,615 27,969 Business 24,043 25,010 25,708 24,131 Universities and colleges 1,304 1,355 1,359 1,324 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 905 888 843 895 Federally funded R&D centers Business 640 617 677 659 Universities and colleges 617 635 635 608 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 368 389 393 353 Government 7,568 7,663 7,831 8,039 Federal Government 5,312 5,256 5,322 5,480 State and local governments (1) 155 186 206 219 Universities and colleges 1,700 1,811 1,895 1,954 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 402 410 407 386 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total R&D investment 35,844 37,862 40,088 41,528 Private 27,391 28,773 30,602 31,759 Business 23,604 24,810 26,579 27,498 Universities and colleges 1,307 1,347 1,388 1,437 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 916 972 993 1,040 Federally funded R&D centers Business 661 737 717 819 Universities and colleges 590 615 650 674 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 313 292 275 291 Government 8,453 9,089 9,486 9,769 Federal Government 5,783 6,221 6,421 6,538 State and local governments (1) 246 287 317 322 Universities and colleges 2,053 2,200 2,348 2,483 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 371 382 400 425 1975 1976 1977 1978 Total R&D investment 40,811 42,011 43,974 48,227 Private 31,084 32,347 34,084 37,596 Business 26,747 27,785 29,230 320,191 Universities and colleges 1,458 1,467 1,547 1,772 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,053 1,102 1,168 1,354 Federally funded R&D centers Business 845 964 995 1,095 Universities and colleges 702 751 850 1,015 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 281 277 295 341 Government 9,727 9,664 9,890 10,631 Federal Government 6,414 6,258 6,206 6,508 State and local governments (1) 315 313 308 330 Universities and colleges 2,541 2,583 2,764 3,086 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 456 511 612 707 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total R&D investment 53,519 59,495 64,962 67,722 Private 42,107 47,126 52,048 54,757 Business 35,952 40,399 45,025 47,803 Universities and colleges 1,997 2,160 2,257 2,262 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,494 1,656 1,777 1,785 Federally funded R&D centers Business 1,142 1,212 1,260 1,270 Universities and colleges 1,129 1,231 1,229 1,171 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 394 468 500 465 Government 11,412 12,369 12,914 12,965 Federal Government 6,861 7,367 7,639 7,622 State and local governments (1) 364 389 400 393 Universities and colleges 3,400 3,733 3,932 3,982 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 786 879 943 967 1983 1984 1985 1986 Total R&D investment 74,035 84,296 95,657 101,469 Private 60,008 68,676 78,039 82,026 Business 52,568 60,438 68,790 71,970 Universities and colleges 2,387 2,631 2,969 3,327 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,950 2,214 2,542 2,838 Federally funded R&D centers Business 1,333 1,460 1,579 1,603 Universities and colleges 1,264 1,405 1,585 1,778 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 506 528 574 510 Government 14,027 15,620 17,618 19,443 Federal Government 8,282 9,237 10,370 11,315 State and local governments (1) 396 391 409 445 Universities and colleges 4,273 4,737 5,419 6,131 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 1,075 1,254 1,420 1,552 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total R&D investment 106,655 113,115 118,375 123,975 Private 86,352 91,397 95,284 100,107 Business 75,396 79,208 82,190 86,386 Universities and colleges 3,729 4,132 4,440 4,624 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 3,057 3,584 4,043 4,325 Federally funded R&D centers Business 1,710 1,815 1,851 1,917 Universities and colleges 1,977 2,149 2,205 2,211 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 483 509 554 644 Government 20,303 21,717 23,091 23,868 Federal Government 11,290 11,836 12,427 12,600 State and local governments (1) 467 504 527 505 Universities and colleges 6,896 7,664 8,382 8,976 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 1,649 1,713 1,754 1,787 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total R&D investment 126,619 128,330 129,120 132,713 Private 102,977 104,122 103,786 106,516 Business 88,816 89,330 88,730 90,811 Universities and colleges 4,747 4,974 5,236 5,500 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 4,700 4,982 5,209 5,263 Federally funded R&D centers Business 1,812 1,847 1,550 1,748 Universities and colleges 2,206 2,250 2,280 2,351 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 697 738 782 843 Government 23,641 24,209 25,334 26,197 Federal Government 12,049 12,136 12,604 12,835 State and local governments (1) 462 433 452 461 Universities and colleges 9,335 9,839 10,474 11,115 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 1,795 1,800 1,804 1,786 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total R&D investment 149,408 165,738 184,926 213,125 Private 121,693 136,619 153,495 177,830 Business 104,842 118,727 134,411 156,354 Universities and colleges 5,958 6,457 7,085 8,103 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 5,545 5,891 6,356 7,497 Federally funded R&D centers Business 1,887 1,969 1,890 1,994 Universities and colleges 2,492 2,555 2,680 2,812 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 969 1,020 1,073 1,070 Government 27,715 29,118 31,430 35,295 Federal Government 13,172 13,474 14,330 15,504 State and local governments (1) 442 422 448 545 Universities and colleges 12,223 13,231 14,528 16,767 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 1,877 1,992 2,123 2,479 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total R&D investment 239,359 268,559 285,661 288,335 Private 201,167 227,394 238,494 235,952 Business 177,185 199,886 207,340 201,943 Universities and colleges 9,001 10,012 11,382 12,615 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 8,541 10,389 11,992 13,006 Federally funded R&D centers Business 1,948 2,010 2,150 2,415 Universities and colleges 2,907 3,044 3,357 3,555 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 1,584 20,531 2,274 2,418 Government 38,192 41,165 47,167 52,383 Federal Government 16,044 16,450 18,936 20,773 State and local governments (1) 594 609 706 802 Universities and colleges 18,893 21,298 24,295 26,941 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 2,661 2,808 3,231 3,868 Excludes universities and colleges. NOTE: Implemented using assumptions defined in scenario D. Table 4.1 Aggregate Input Price Indexes for R&D Investment, 1959-2002 [Index numbers, 2000=100] 1959 1960 1961 1962 Total funder R&D investment 18.4 18.4 18.8 19.1 Federal extramural 24.2 24.6 25.0 26.2 Federal intramural 12.0 11.2 12.2 12.2 Non-federal domestic 17.2 17.3 17.4 16.9 Total performer R&D investment 18.4 18.4 18.8 19.1 Private 20.4 20.6 20.9 21.2 Business 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.8 Universities and colleges 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.2 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.9 Federally funded R&D centers Business 19.2 19.0 18.9 19.6 Universities and colleges 24.6 24.2 24.0 24.8 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 24.5 25.1 25.7 27.0 Public 12.4 11.8 12.6 12.7 Federal Government 12.0 11.2 12.2 12.2 State and local governments (1) 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.9 Universities and colleges 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.9 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 19.5 19.0 18.8 19.2 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total funder R&D investment 19.5 20.0 20.6 21.3 Federal extramural 24.8 25.5 26.1 26.4 Federal intramural 13.4 14.4 15.5 16.4 Non-federal domestic 19.1 19.0 19.3 20.6 Total performer R&D investment 19.5 20.0 20.6 21.3 Private 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.8 Business 22.1 22.4 22.8 23.4 Universities and colleges 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.7 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.7 Federally funded R&D centers Business 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.6 Universities and colleges 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.6 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 25.6 26.3 26.7 26.8 Public 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.3 Federal Government 13.4 14.4 15.5 16.4 State and local governments (1) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.7 Universities and colleges 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.1 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.4 1967 1968 1969 1970 Total funder R&D investment 22.1 23.1 24.4 25.8 Federal extramural 27.7 28.9 30.6 32.1 Federal intramural 17.3 18.5 19.8 21.6 Non-federal domestic 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.9 Total performer R&D investment 22.1 23.1 24.4 25.8 Private 23.6 24.6 25.8 27.2 Business 24.1 25.2 26.4 27.8 Universities and colleges 17.6 18.7 19.8 21.0 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.5 Federally funded R&D centers Business 21.6 22.6 24.2 25.7 Universities and colleges 26.7 27.9 29.5 31.2 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 28.1 29.3 31.0 32.6 Public 17.1 18.2 19.5 21.1 Federal Government 17.3 18.5 19.8 21.6 State and local governments (1) 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.5 Universities and colleges 16.9 17.9 19.0 20.2 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 21.4 22.5 24.1 25.6 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total funder R&D investment 27.3 28.8 30.4 33.2 Federal extramural 34.0 36.7 38.5 41.6 Federal intramural 23.8 26.1 27.8 29.8 Non-federal domestic 25.0 25.2 26.9 29.7 Total performer R&D investment 27.3 28.8 30.4 33.2 Private 28.5 29.8 31.5 34.4 Business 29.2 30.4 32.1 35.0 Universities and colleges 22.0 22.9 24.3 26.6 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 22.3 23.0 24.3 27.9 Federally funded R&D centers Business 27.2 29.2 31.2 34.4 Universities and colleges 32.9 35.1 37.0 40.4 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 34.5 37.3 39.2 42.6 Public 22.9 24.8 26.4 28.6 Federal Government 23.8 26.1 27.8 29.8 State and local governments (1) 22.3 23.0 24.3 27.9 Universities and colleges 21.5 22.5 24.0 26.4 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 27.1 28.9 31.0 34.2 1975 1976 1977 1978 Total funder R&D investment 36.4 38.6 41.2 44.0 Federal extramural 45.6 47.7 50.4 53.4 Federal intramural 33.0 35.3 38.5 40.7 Non-federal domestic 32.4 34.6 37.0 39.9 Total performer R&D investment 36.4 38.6 41.2 44.0 Private 37.6 39.8 42.3 45.3 Business 38.2 40.5 43.0 46.0 Universities and colleges 28.8 30.5 32.5 34.8 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 30.6 32.7 34.9 37.5 Federally funded R&D centers Business 38.8 41.1 44.2 47.2 Universities and colleges 44.7 46.8 49.4 52.1 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 46.6 48.8 51.3 54.0 Public 31.5 33.6 36.4 38.8 Federal Government 33.0 35.3 38.5 40.7 State and local governments (1) 30.6 32.7 34.9 37.5 Universities and colleges 28.7 30.4 32.4 34.9 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 38.6 40.7 43.9 47.2 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total funder R&D investment 47.6 52.2 57.0 60.5 Federal extramural 57.0 62.0 66.6 71.1 Federal intramural 43.6 47.9 52.2 55.5 Non-federal domestic 43.8 48.1 53.2 56.3 Total performer R&D investment 47.6 52.2 57.0 60.5 Private 49.0 53.6 58.6 62.1 Business 49.9 54.4 59.5 63.1 Universities and colleges 38.0 42.0 45.7 48.7 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 41.3 46.6 51.6 54.1 Federally funded R&D centers Business 51.0 56.2 61.4 66.0 Universities and colleges 56.0 60.8 65.3 69.4 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 57.9 62.8 67.2 71.0 Public 41.9 46.2 50.3 53.5 Federal Government 43.6 47.9 52.2 55.5 State and local governments (1) 41.3 46.6 51.6 54.1 Universities and colleges 38.3 42.4 46.1 49.0 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 51.1 56.5 62.0 66.3 1983 1984 1985 1986 Total funder R&D investment 62.9 65.3 67.4 69.1 Federal extramural 74.2 76.7 78.4 80.1 Federal intramural 57.8 59.8 61.7 63.8 Non-federal domestic 58.4 60.8 63.0 64.6 Total performer R&D investment 62.9 65.3 67.4 69.1 Private 64.6 67.0 69.1 70.7 Business 65.6 68.0 70.1 71.6 Universities and colleges 50.8 53.4 55.9 58.1 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 55.8 57.9 59.2 61.0 Federally funded R&D centers Business 68.7 71.0 73.5 75.2 Universities and colleges 72.0 74.7 76.8 78.5 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 73.7 76.6 78.4 80.2 Public 55.7 57.9 60.0 62.1 Federal Government 57.8 59.8 61.7 63.8 State and local governments (1) 55.8 57.9 59.2 61.0 Universities and colleges 51.1 53.7 56.2 58.5 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 69.0 71.4 74.0 75.8 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total funder R&D investment 71.9 74.5 77.6 80.2 Federal extramural 80.9 81.0 82.9 85.0 Federal intramural 65.9 68.7 70.7 74.1 Non-federal domestic 68.5 72.4 76.3 79.0 Total performer R&D investment 71.9 74.5 77.6 80.2 Private 73.6 76.3 79.4 81.9 Business 74.7 77.4 80.6 83.0 Universities and colleges 61.2 64.0 67.4 70.6 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 63.5 66.8 69.3 71.9 Federally funded R&D centers Business 75.9 77.5 80.1 82.5 Universities and colleges 79.3 80.6 83.1 85.4 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 81.0 81.0 82.8 84.9 Public 64.5 67.1 69.6 72.8 Federal Government 65.9 68.7 70.7 74.1 State and local governments (1) 63.5 66.8 69.3 71.9 Universities and colleges 61.6 64.1 67.3 70.4 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 77.0 78.9 81.6 84.0 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total funder R&D investment 82.6 84.9 87.0 88.8 Federal extramural 86.7 88.9 90.1 91.5 Federal intramural 77.5 79.3 82.1 85.0 Non-federal domestic 81.6 84.1 86.5 88.2 Total performer R&D investment 82.6 84.9 87.0 88.8 Private 84.2 86.6 88.6 90.1 Business 85.2 87.8 89.9 91.2 Universities and colleges 72.8 75.0 77.1 79.5 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 75.1 77.4 78.9 80.5 Federally funded R&D centers Business 84.6 87.0 88.3 90.0 Universities and colleges 87.1 89.6 90.6 92.3 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 86.4 88.9 90.0 91.7 Public 75.6 77.5 80.0 82.6 Federal Government 77.4 79.3 82.1 85.0 State and local governments (1) 75.1 77.4 78.9 80.5 Universities and colleges 72.6 74.7 77.0 79.5 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 86.0 88.2 89.5 91.2 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total funder R&D investment 90.1 91.9 93.9 95.1 Federal extramural 92.7 93.4 95.3 96.6 Federal intramural 88.2 90.6 92.7 94.4 Non-federal domestic 89.4 91.6 93.4 94.7 Total performer R&D investment 90.1 91.9 93.8 95.1 Private 91.1 92.7 94.4 95.6 Business 91.8 93.3 95.0 96.1 Universities and colleges 82.1 85.0 87.6 90.2 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 84.1 86.7 89.3 92.0 Federally funded R&D centers Business 92.7 93.7 95.4 96.4 Universities and colleges 93.8 94.4 96.0 97.0 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 92.9 93.5 95.5 96.7 Public 85.5 88.1 90.4 92.5 Federal Government 88.2 90.6 92.7 94.5 State and local governments (1) 94.1 86.7 89.3 92.0 Universities and colleges 82.1 85.1 87.6 90.3 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 94.2 95.3 96.6 97.2 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total funder R&D investment 96.8 100.0 102.6 106.3 Federal extramural 97.7 100.0 101.9 103.9 Federal intramural 96.9 100.0 102.6 106.5 Non-federal domestic 96.5 100.0 102.8 107.2 Total performer R&D investment 96.8 100.0 102.6 106.3 Private 96.9 100.0 102.4 106.2 Business 97.1 100.0 102.4 106.4 Universities and colleges 95.0 100.0 104.2 108.1 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 94.5 100.0 101.6 102.9 Federally funded R&D centers Business 97.3 100.0 102.4 104.9 Universities and colleges 97.7 100.0 101.7 103.6 Other nonprofit institutions serving households 97.6 100.0 101.9 104.0 Public 96.0 100.0 103.3 107.0 Federal Government 96.9 100.0 102.6 106.5 State and local governments (1) 94.5 100.0 101.6 102.9 Universities and colleges 95.0 100.0 104.2 107.9 Federally funded R&D centers Universities and colleges 97.6 100.0 101.9 104.0 (1.) Excludes universities and colleges Table 4.2 Alternative Scenario Price Indexes for R&D Investment, 1959-2002 [Index numbers, 2000=100] 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Scenario A 18.4 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.5 20.0 Scenario B 94.5 92.3 91.0 87.9 86.5 85.4 Scenario C 43.6 43.6 45.2 44.6 45.3 45.8 Scenario D 64.8 65.1 65.0 65.3 64.3 64.0 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Scenario A 20.6 21.3 22.1 23.1 24.4 25.8 Scenario B 84.1 85.9 86.6 86.1 87.7 90.3 Scenario C 46.4 47.0 48.0 48.5 47.7 48.3 Scenario D 64.2 65.2 66.9 68.7 70.2 73.9 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Scenario A 27.3 28.8 30.4 33.2 36.4 38.6 Scenario B 90.8 90.7 92.1 101.1 105.8 107.6 Scenario C 52.2 54.4 55.4 57.6 62.5 67.1 Scenario D 76.6 77.7 79.2 82.7 90.1 96.5 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Scenario A 41.2 44.0 47.6 52.2 57.0 60.5 Scenario B 110.1 114.6 122.2 130.3 138.1 139.0 Scenario C 70.3 72.0 72.0 75.3 80.8 87.2 Scenario D 101.0 103.0 106.3 110.0 115.1 122.4 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Scenario A 62.9 65.3 67.4 69.1 71.9 74.5 Scenario B 137.9 135.7 134.2 132.1 129.3 128.9 Scenario C 92.0 97.2 104.9 110.4 107.2 108.4 Scenario D 123.8 123.3 121.5 121.0 119.7 119.9 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Scenario A 77.6 80.2 82.6 84.9 87.0 88.8 Scenario B 132.2 134.4 136.5 134.2 132.9 128.4 Scenario C 108.4 108.7 110.8 112.8 115.1 114.2 Scenario D 121.6 124.4 129.2 130.7 130.2 129.3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Scenario A 90.1 91.9 93.8 95.1 96.8 100.0 Scenario B 123.8 121.0 115.4 111.4 105.8 100.0 Scenario C 115.2 115.2 116.1 111.6 105.8 100.0 Scenario D 123.9 119.9 115.6 106.9 102.7 100.0 2001 2002 Scenario A 102.6 106.3 Scenario B 100.0 99.4 Scenario C 96.3 93.2 Scenario D 96.4 95.9 NOTES. Scenario A uses an input price index. Scenario B uses a multifactor productivity-adjusted price index. Scenario C uses a high-productivity service industries price index. Scenario D uses a top four R&D performers price index. The price index for scenario A corresponds to the total price indexes for funders and performers in table 4.1.