期刊名称：Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies
出版年度：2016
卷号：18
期号：1
页码：117
出版社：Loyola University Chicago
摘要：This paper compares the last two oil shocks of 2008-09 and 2014-15, their macroeconomic impact on the Algerian economy and the policy responses. On the commonalities, both oil price plunges took place after several years of booming prices and steady, but modest, growth that led the country build sizable buffers in international reserves and in a fiscal stabilization fund (le “Fonds de Regulation des Reserves” (FRR). The FRR allowed similar countercyclical fiscal policies to sustain growth as first response to the crisis with relative success in the first episode. However, the external environment features three differences in the most recent shock: the oil shock is not short-lived and accompanied by a significant dollar appreciation and no decline in output growth of Algeria’s main trade partners that could partly explain the severe deterioration of its external balances. Initial macroeconomic fundamentals were also different, with large domestic and external imbalances preceding the last shock. These differences explain why the policy response this time has required a nominal depreciation of the Algerian dinar coupled with tight monetary policy to revert the exchange rate pass-through effect over prices, and late fiscal austerity measures to prevent a rapid depletion of the fiscal buffer. Authorities have had little choice when recently adjusting fuel prices and raising taxes, modifying foreign private investment regulations and preparing to external borrowing in the approval of the 2016 Finance Law. Authorities face a unique opportunity to reform onerous, inequitable and ineffective subsidies and diversify exports supply.
关键词：Macro impacts; Macroeconomic policy; Budget; Deficit and debt
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