期刊名称：Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies
出版年度：2011
卷号：13
期号：1
出版社：Loyola University Chicago
摘要：This paper argues the distributional effects of parametric pension reforms on saving and provides some evidence from Turkey. First, I develop a two-period overlapping generations model in which wealth distributions are initiated by an adverse demographic shock to the PAYG system. Unlike other empirical studies testing age-consumption profiles, I argue that, when transfers are used to balance the system, the significant difference between workers and retirees in terms of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) can substantiate the negative effects of wealth redistribution on national saving. In the second part, I apply panel estimations by using microdata from the Household Budget Surveys conducted in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 for more than 50,000 households. I show that, although the MPC is not higher for older generations, it is significantly higher for retirees than for workers. Even though confirming this fact alone does not promise a reduction in national saving, the results imply that, given the unparalleled generosity of the Turkish PAYG system and its significance in households’ budgets and as long as reforms redistribute wealth from workers to retirees, the recent parametric reforms should contribute to the current negative trend in national saving
关键词：Intergenerational Transfers; Life-Cycle Saving; Social Security
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