期刊名称：Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies
出版年度：2010
卷号：12
期号：1
出版社：Loyola University Chicago
摘要：This study examines the relationship between consumer confidence and financial markets foran emerging economy, namely Turkey. We believe that in emerging markets the future isuncertain rather than risky. In such an economy, consumer confidence should be regarded asan economic indicator which derives most of its information content from past and currenteconomic outlook. Therefore, we model consumer sentiment as a function of high frequencyfinancial market variables such as interest rates, exchange rates and the stock exchange index.Using weekly data for the global crisis period of January 2008 – October 2009, this paperempirically validates the existence of cointegration between consumer confidence and thefinancial market variables of interest. Hence, in emerging markets consumer confidenceshould be viewed as an endogenous variable rather than just reflecting the sensitivity ofconsumers about the future path of the economy.
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